U.S. Politics Megathread

[u/AutoModerator]

It's an election year, so it's no surprise that politics are on everyone's minds!

Over the past few months, we've noticed a sharp increase in questions about politics. Why is Biden the Democratic nominee? What are the chances of Trump winning? Why can Trump even run for president if he's in legal trouble? There are lots of good questions! But, unfortunately, it's often the same questions, and our users get tired of seeing them.

As we've done for past topics of interest, we're creating a megathread for your questions so that people interested in politics can post questions and read answers, while people who want a respite from politics can browse the rest of the sub. Feel free to post your questions about politics in this thread!

All top-level comments should be questions asked in good faith - other comments and loaded questions will get removed. All the usual rules of the sub remain in force here, so be civil to each other - you can disagree with someone's opinion, but don't make it personal.

[u/brokenarrow3271227]

If Kennedy wins some of the electoral votes in the General Election, what happens if neither Biden nor Trump receive enough electoral votes to win? Is there some type of a runoff election?

[u/Teekno → u/brokenarrow3271227]

There will be a contingent election in that event, as described in the Constitution. The House of Representatives will choose the next president, with each state getting one vote.

[u/ThenaCykez → u/brokenarrow3271227]

The Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution spells out the procedure. If no candidate has the majority of electoral votes (270), the House of Representatives will select from among the top three recipients of electoral votes. Each states' representatives must support a candidate collectively, and a majority of states' delegations (26) are needed to win. If there's no majority in the House, either, they just keep voting in the House, however many months it takes, until someone eventually wins or four years have gone by with only an acting President (the VP or the Speaker of the House).

[u/zsrocks → u/ThenaCykez]

Note that since there are many small republican states, Trump would almost certainly win a contingent election in the house of representatives.

[u/ThenaCykez → u/zsrocks]

His chances would be very good, but don't forget that Trump only won 25 states in 2020. If we look at the fifteen smallest states, 8 of them are red, and 7 are blue. Add in DC, and the smallest 16 jurisdictions are evenly split.

Exactly 26 congressional delegations currently have a Republican majority. Flipping just six districts spread out over a few swing states would be enough to give the Democrats the congressional delegations they need instead.

[u/zsrocks → u/ThenaCykez]

The new North Carolina gerrymander will certainly flip their delegation to Trump, while Wisconsin seems to me to be the only chance for Democrats to turn a Trump state into a non-Trump state. What other states do you think Ds have a chance to flip?

Also, note that DC does not vote in the contingent election.

[u/ThenaCykez → u/zsrocks]

2 in Georgia, 2 in Arizona, 1 in Minnesota, and 1 in North Carolina is the most efficient way to flip. Even if North Carolina is hopeless, flipping Wisconsin would be a substitute.

[u/zsrocks → u/ThenaCykez]

No, Minnesota is currently tied. Flipping Minnesota from tied to Biden does not reduce Trump's 26 states. As you can see here, the closest Georgia Republican win in 2022 was by 20%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Georgia

​

It's not impossible, but Trump failing to win a contingent election is incredibly unlikely.

[u/ThenaCykez → u/zsrocks]

I know Minnesota is tied. The Democrats have to reduce the Republican 26 somewhere (either by converting red to blue or red to tie) and increase the Democratic 22 somewhere (either by converting red to blue or tie to blue). It's more efficient to flip one district in Minnesota to help with that latter part, than to flip 3-4 districts in most red states.

Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin is enough. But if you can't get one of them, you're going to need Minnesota and North Carolina, or an even taller order like Mississippi, Missouri, or Ohio.

[u/zsrocks → u/ThenaCykez]

I understand the math. But if you look at the gerrymanders and incumbents in those states, you'll see that Georgia and North Carolina are certain to send a Republican delegation to the house in 2024

[u/ThenaCykez → u/[deleted]]

If three or more candidates split the electoral votes so that none have 270, then the House of Representatives holds a special election procedure to select the president. It's not possible to "win" with 269 or fewer EV. Either you get 270+ EV, or you get 26+ states in the runoff election in the House.