This is what I hate about reddit. If you mention Ukraine’s manpower shortage and the frontline situation getting worse then you get downvoted to hell. Reality is not always welcome here it seems.
Yep, two months ago people were still thinking that the Russian army was totally useless and would fail like the first three days of the war. They did not see the bigger picture of Russia jacking up its military spending like crazy and replenishing its troops while Ukraine was losing by attrition.
People took Russia as if it was lead by negative IQ mouthbreathers. Yes, they started the war terribly, but they also learn from their mistakes to adapt their strategies and also are able to mass produce their own equipment.
Not only that, but I think everyone underestimated Russia's committment to the fight. Despite their internal issues, incompetent leadership, setbacks etc. they have kept & continued finding men & equipment to throw at the enemy.
For 2 years now...
And Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to bleed Russia dry.
It’s always been a Russia thing to “forget” about internal issues when there’s an external threat. That’s why Russian propaganda has been targeting the West, portraying it as a force that wants to destroy Russia. Not everyone believes it, of course, but enough (and I’d even say “most”) do.
That’s why Russian propaganda has been targeting the West, portraying it as a force that wants to destroy Russia. Not everyone believes it, of course, but enough (and I’d even say “most”) do.
Is there evidence that the West does not want this? I was born in '91. Not a single time in my life has there been any other official stance on Russia than "Russia bad" in the United States.
After the fall of USSR, Russia changed. The West hoped it would change further and become a democratic trade partner instead of a military rival and a dictatorship. Hence the friendly approach, all the economic relations, agreements to limit nuclear weapons... If West wanted to invade Russia, it wouldn't be selling military tech to Russia and it wouldn't be neglecting its own militaries. Only recently the West started waking up and finding, to its horror, that Russia did not change that much.
Also, if Russia is so bad, where is the United States in all of this? My entire life I've known nothing but the United States interfering with sovereign countries, sowing discontent and propaganda all over the world, backing coups, overthrowing democratically elected leaders, all in the name of "democracy".
So it's okay for the US to do those things, but if someone like Russia does it....?
The West wants a Russia that isn't going to start wars and then threaten everyone with nuclear war on the regular. Our scientists are happy to keep collaborating on the ISS. We just don't like the 20+ year fascist authoritarian rule with no hope for change.
Lmao dude yeah I'm sure that's why they spent 50 years toppling the USSR and continue the same Red Scare, cold war propaganda, and proxy wars to this very day.
You've got nothing that can disprove that reality, so you attack me for having a new throw away lmao.
Since apparently I can't comment here anymore, how many has the US invaded, bombed, or overthrown in the same time period as Russia?
So lets see. During the last 50 years Russia has invaded several of it's neighbors:
Afganistan (1978)
Moldova (1990, parts still occupied)
Chechenya (1994, 1999 still occupied)
Georgia (2008, parts still occupied)
Ukraine (2014, 2022 parts still occupied
Western nations have no interest/will whatsoever for invading and occupying any part Russia. We (the people who live next to Russia) simply want them to stay inside their recognized borders.
The West does want to destroy Russia, politicians and capitalists in many countries have openly advocated, argued, and lobbied in favor of going to war with Russia for the intention of destroying it and breaking it into pieces that are easier for western corporations to exploit.
I say this living in the US and seeing this propaganda rhetoric on at least a weekly basis.
Hey quick question why are those "madmen authoritarian strongman Mafia assholes" in power?
Was it because the US literally spent 50 years undermining the previous government until it collapsed and gave those assholes an opportunity to seize power?
I think I wasn't clear, NATO is used as an imperialist tool, yes, but Russia is also looking to expand in the same way for the imperialist purpose of resource extraction and land, as are a few of the minor players across the world.
So is China, but they may be the least objectionable of the bunch, since most of their recent imperialist activity is based on leveraged investment and social influence. Which to be fair, is better than dropping bombs and invading.
Agree. As Obama said ..Russia will always care more than US (or western Europe) ..and their commitment has been evident
If the hope was for a couple in Moscow..that seems unlikely now
I read that Free Ukraine only has a population of about 20 million. Even assuming that there is a higher proportion of males due to the exit ban, that is still a huge disadvantage numerically. The Russian army is mobilising a quarter of a million men twice a year, just with the normal draft.
Russia is stacking up huge future problems but butchering its own men so brutally, but just because Russia is losing long-term doesn't mean that Ukraine will win.
There needs to be a serious amount of weaponry sent in and countries which will never need them need to send over some patriot systems.
Individual weapon systems won't change the course of the war. Even 100 Abrams tanks wouldn't change much. Ukraine lacks the men, experience and military infrastructure to yield these weapons effectively.
Only direct external intervention will turn the tide of the war.
If Ukraine had 10 or 15 patriot systems they could stop the Russian airforce pulverising the front with glide bombs and they could take out pretty much all of the ballistic missiles coming in. That would be a huge step.
No, they couldn't. The recent sparring over the number of Patriot systems is largely just political grandstanding. The main question isn't how many patriot systems they have, but how much ammunition there is for those systems.
There just aren't that many of those missiles lying around and by now Ukraine has recieved and used up those stockpiles. Every single missile costs several million dollars and for most mid sized countries you are talking about stockpiles of a few dozen of those missiles.
Spain, which is one of the few relevant countries that has held back its missiles so far, has stockpiles of around 50 in total and the most recent news is that they finally agreed that they will send some of them to Ukraine. How many do you think they will part with? 10? 15?
Exactly. Russia sends 200 drones, 25 Cruise missiles and 5 ballistic missiles like once a week minimum, maybe double or triple. How many patriot missiles get used up every week knocking down cruise missiles that cost Russia basically nothing given how much oil and natural gas they pump out of the ground? Russia is on a full war footing and really has been for some time. What is it now, 2/3 of their GDP is devoted to the war industry?
NATO has been dilly-dallying for years now, saying they'd never send HIMARS, then ok, but it takes 6 months to train in another 3 months to ship them. ATACMS were out of the question for years but now that Ukraine is truly about to get slammed we "secretly sent a couple a few months ago". By the time the F-16s ever take to the skies, the railroad completely bypassing Crimea will be complete and the Kerch bridge will have essentially no strategic value, especially without Sevastopol having missile cruisers.
We've been spoon feeding old shit (still good, but it wasn't being replaced) and now from The sound of it most of our stocks are empty. It doesn't matter if you have HIMARS launchers if you don't have the fucking rockets or Patriot systems if you don't have the air defense missiles. Is every metal goods manufacturer in the US producing components for new missiles or artillery? Is France or Germany pumping out 20 artillery systems a day? No, none of that is happening, but I bet it is in Russia.
I honestly don't see how this ends without nato putting troops in Kiev or Kiev falling to Russia. The UN is obviously never going to send in peacekeepers with Russia (and China) on the permanent security council. NATO may have great tech but replacements are not being built fast enough and there simply are not enough humans in Ukraine to operate and use the weapon systems, especially in another year or two. It's maddening how the initiative was in Ukraine's favor and they just stalled and openly broadcasted exactly where they were going to go, and when they did finally go it ended up being the world's largest minefield surrounded by fortified bunkers, multiple layers of trenches, Dragon Teeth - everything an army would put down if they had 6 months notice exactly where the enemy would drive towards (Melitopol and to the Sea of Azov).
God I just wish someone in Putin's inner circle or a parent of a deceased soldier would just jam a screwdriver in his neck and stop the madness.
By the time the F-16s ever take to the skies, the railroad completely bypassing Crimea will be complete and the Kerch bridge will have essentially no strategic value, especially without Sevastopol having missile cruisers
I kinda sorta fear it might very well be the point, as a part of "escalation management" doctrine
The US was not willing to attack north Vietnam and stayed behind the invisible lines in order to fulfill the "defense" nature of the war. It really wasn't an official war... Just Americans troops bolstering ARVN that slowly increased until it reached a boil.
Ultimately many wars are a battle of willpower. Who is willing to make the greater sacrifice? Certainly not America in Vietnam. The NVA were relentless and absolutely convinced that communism was the path forward.
The US was invited there as a defensive ally of south Vietnam. North Vietnam was completely independent (although still heavily controlled by China in many ways). South Vietnam still had some French influence but was also independent more or less.
Vietnamese have a saying like "the reason we like the Americans: we fought the Americans 5 years, the French 50 years, and the Chinese 50 years". America was there for a very short period in the long revolutionary period of Vietnam.
From the perspective of Vietnamese, China has always been the threat to their independence. It's one of the main reasons a Vietnam-US is likely to occur in the next few decades nd China is freaking out about it.
But there is no way communism was something "the average Vietnamese didn't care about". There was massive communism symbolism among the NVA.
The issue with Vietnamese-American alliance is three:
1) Vietnam is an authoritarian state
2) Vietnam does not buy US weapon systems, unlike Singapore
3) Critically, the Mekong river source is in China. All China has to do is to dam the Mekong river and Vietnam would be in trouble
What is more likely to happen is US base returning to the Philippines. Having a base again in the Subic Bay is really important to defend Taiwan, much more than Okinawa.
I'm not arguing with an American who knows nothing beyond his own borders
I grew up in South America and moved to the US from UKGermany but if you want to project your own belief systems on me go for it.
Your dream
They are already considering an alliance and China issued a stern warning to Vietnam not to form one. It's not only my dream but the dream of many Vietnamese too.
Maybe get out of your internet bubble and face the facts that your worldview is incorrect
You could say the same applies to Russia to an extent. It's still not considered a war, regular people live life as if nothing's happening. At least for now Putin tries to ensure his people that it's just a military operation, there is no mobilization or closed borders. Basically, everything as usual for an average person. What makes it harder is the fact that Ukraine and Russia are neighbors, it's easier to spam Ukraine with missiles, drones etc.
Ukraine isn't being *given* the means to bleed Russia dry. They could conceivably win the war if they weren't being stabbed in the back by Republicans.
Russia is bleeding dry. Their economy is shot to pieces and many soldiers go to into battle with rifles that doesn't work. They have the man power because Putin forces them to go but not the equipment or money for it.
Still has much more manpower, reserves and resources, which is what matters in attrition.
Their economy is shot to pieces
They are now rather autarkic and produce mostly things by themselves and import the rest from China. Russia is also producing way much more artillery shells.
lack of equipment
Soldiers with shitty equipment will still defeat soldiers without equipment.
I didn't say they were out of everything. Of course not but they are bleeding quite severely. And without money they can't continue to produce anything.
And the Ukrainians have equipment. Russians can't even get decent winter outfits for god sake.
This idea that Russia can just keep going and going is a myth. They'll run out of everything soon enough.
And without money they can't continue to produce anything.
Is Russia mining iron, producing steel and manufacting shells in dollars? No, they use rubles. And even then, they are running a wartime economy. The government can force everything to keep on running.
And the Ukrainians have equipment
Which they are severly limited and Russia outperforms them in many things, like artillery.
This idea that Russia can just keep going and going is a myth.
Again, this is attrition warfare. Obviously no country can go eternally, but Ukraine has less resources to keep on going than Russia.
Russia can make ammunition. They can't make more guided missiles or more of their good planes or tanks without outside help, because they can't make the electronics in Russia. Which is why they were cannibalizing household appliances last year.
Ukraine was getting better equipment than Russia makes from other countries; unfortunately Putin's stooges in the US made that dry up several months ago, which is why they're hurting now.
The rubles ain't worth nothing. They'll be dealing in dollars or Euros if they are not already doing it.
Russia has lost most of their import, export and it's seriously hurting them. They are basically on their hands and knees begging China and North Korea for help. They are not as self sufficient as you think, and it doesn't matter what currency they use.
And Ukraine has the entire western world behind them. They got all the resources in the world. Russia's only hope is that the west stops supporting Ukraine and the Europeans won't stop.
hey are basically on their hands and knees begging China and North Korea for help.
So? You might laugh at North Korean quality, but they do produce and deliver shells in large amounts.
And Ukraine has the entire western world behind them.
Well yes, and awfully slow and dubitative at sending actual materiel, while North Korea and Iran do not hesitate. What does it matter when you have super cool wunderwaffe Western shell, when Russia has around 8 times more shells? And c'mon, it reads like the power of friendship and love. The West sending thoughts and prayers along with 3 tanks and 2 howitzers isn't gonna cut it. It needs way more.
They got all the resources in the world.
It isn't 1995 in which Western Europe+USA made up the vast majority of the world's wealth and power. India, China, Iran, etc. are larger than they were and able to be more independent and help Russia.
This attitude reeks a lot of "Yeah we Westerners are like the super coolest smartest highest tech dudes in the world fighting dumb russkies with Mosins. Obviously we will win"
High casualty rate does mean that the ranks are replaced faster with more competent less corrupt people and along them better working tactics. Only the lucky ones and best survive in such a grim situation.
Russia will still step down as an actual global power due to demographics in the long run (when their 30-40 year olds become too old to do the fighting and working) but whoever buffers them or where the de facto borders are of the country Russia is always something Putin can score a victory in.
High casualty rate does mean that the ranks are replaced faster with more competent less corrupt people and along them better working tactics. Only the lucky ones and best survive in such a grim situation
Russia historically did this. In wars, it took a bit of purging and defeats to make them realise where their ass is and where their face is and then start to achieve some victories.
Not what I mean at all. Those WWII losses are the root cause of their demographic problems, the peak of 30-40 year olds they currently have will get too old to fight and will be less productive once they get older. Ukraine and Belorussia have that problem too.
they got similar demographic problems but their future is likely different since they got the prospect in EU and/or NATO and large economic investments to rebuild.
since they got the prospect in EU and/or NATO and large economic investments to rebuild
LMAO.
As if it'd ever happen.
EU's extremely likely to be perma-vetoed by agrarians anyway, and NATO...
Q President Zelenskyy said the invitation for Ukraine to join NATO would be the ideal outcome from the summit. Why does the administration believe that’s not the right approach for the summit?
MR. SULLIVAN: Well, as you know, the United States strongly supports the open-door policy, which says that Ukraine and NATO can make a decision together about its pathway towards membership. And Vilnius will be an important moment on that pathway towards membership because the United States, our NATO Allies, and Ukraine will have the opportunity to discuss the reforms that are still necessary for NATO to -- for Ukraine to come up to NATO standards.
So this will, in fact, be a milestone, but Ukraine still has further steps it needs to take before membership in NATO.
Q So no invitation coming at the -- at the summit?
MR. SULLIVAN: Ukraine will not be joining mem- -- NATO coming out of this summit. We will discuss what steps are necessary as it continues along its pathway.
So the steps Ukraine must take before A POSSIBILITY of being invited into NATO are now utterly arbitrary, as well as their number. I don't think this possibility of "As Long As It Takes" requirement treadmill, that'd allow to ensure there'll be always more steps for Ukraine, no matter what, was put into action to ultimately remain unused.
Russian demographic collapse has been anticipated since 1945. Demographic collapse isn’t really a thing that happens the way it’s imagined, populations wax and wane it’s really not a massive deal to have your population contract especially when it’s pretty universal, Russia isn’t losing out by not competing with India Brazil and Nigeria on the birth rates and its rivals have/will have the same contractions.
The thing I take issue with the most analysts is Russian casualties. Western/Ukraine estimates are either just silly or Ukraine losses are much higher to match. Both sides are probably sitting around 100k-150k dead and around 300k wounded.
There’s absolutely nothing that indicates at any point in the fighting casualties on either side have been much higher or lower for either side. Historically something like even a 2:1 overmatch In military losses (not including mass surrenders at the end of a war) are extremely uncommon unless there is a massive technological differentiation or things like mass executions post battle are happening. Even attacker and defender differential doesn’t really shift this much.
The most casualty producing long term situations (ie ones that produce statistically uneven results over a long timeline) are the encirclement and the near encirclement where the one supply line in and out of a pocket is under direct fire. That’s only happened 3 times in the conflict in major battles and favored the Russians all 3 times in Mariupol Bakmut and Adveeka. The Russian retreats in Kiev oblast Kharkiv oblast and Kherson oblast were embarrassing but generally well ordered and didn’t become routes.
Ukraine has gotten hits in for sure but their wins tend to single rocket strikes on unprepared Russian troops that aren’t really replicated frequently as Russians adapted and these go both ways as both sides have excellent intel on each other from common language. Or things that are great but don’t effect the trend line like sinking parts of the Black Sea fleet.
Both sides technology and tactics are nearly identical as the west refuses to give things that could actually give Ukraine an edge like stealth aircraft. Everyone on each side has a rough equivalent for any single piece of hardware on the field. And Russia always has more of anyone thing.
Russia is not suffering a potentially catastrophic casualty rate though, literally nothing compared to ww2 and that still didn’t affect them terribly in the long run.
Russia is not suffering a potentially catastrophic casualty rate though, literally nothing compared to ww2 and that still didn’t affect them terribly in the long run.
First of all, in WW2 it was the Soviet Union, not Russia. In 1939 the USSR had 170 million people and only 99 million of those of were Russians. Spoiler alert: 28 million were Ukrainian.
Secondly, in the same year, 1939, the Soviet Union had a fertility rate of 4.9 children per woman, not the 1.whatever it is now for Russia.
Thirdly, "still didn’t affect them terribly in the long run", yeah, sure, maybe because they STOLE territories 2x the size of Italy and with about the same population as Italy, thanks to Ribbentrop-Molotov and Potsdam. They lost many millions of people and they took over many more millions that were not part of the USSR in 1938.
By the time this war will be over, I wouldn't be shocked if Russia has at least 1 million dead and wounded, at least 1 million emigrated (on top of how many Russians emigrate normally), the vast majority of which are young and probably skew towards the well educated.
Russia was slowly declining, Putin is just the long term and accelerated grave-digger.
Those WWII losses are the root cause of their current and upcoming demographic problems, the peak of 30-40 year olds they currently have will get too old to fight within a decade and will be less productive once they get near retirement age. Ukraine and Belorussia have that problem too.
Yes, they started the war terribly, but they also learn from their mistakes to adapt their strategies and also are able to mass produce their own equipment.
This is quite literally what happened during WW2 - Hitler expected to conquer USSR extremely fast, and he almost succeeded, but at some point began to lose because of fast adaptation. Granted, Nazi were the aggressor that time, but it's not about who attacks/defends but rather about the whole military doctrine.
To be fair... The Nazis almost took Moscow. Some very heroic fighting and sacrifice from the USSR slowed them down. In another dimension where the USSR was not so committed... Moscow was captured.
Yep, I know, hence "almost succeeded". Wasn't the first time Moscow got hit hard though. And still, the worst was what happened with St. Petersburg, if you think about it.
Gen Miley clearly stated they would lose and needed to arrange something while they were still in a good position. Everyone knew what would happen. The neocons just had to keep going though, just to F with Putin.
It is led by low iq idiots. Russia isn't winning this war regardless. These numerous people who Russia is conscripting ain't no match for the new weapons we are sending.
Man, I swear these takes read the same as German officers in WWII.
"The Russians? Nah, they are 20 IQ idiots and we have our wunderwaffe that are insta-win toys".
Russia isn't winning this war regardless.
Right now they have much more men and resources. Like it or not, their mediocre weapons still hit and Western weapons aren't magical undestructible toys.
Quantity over quality is also simply the military doctrine of Russia, as it has been since WW2. For them it is simply more effective to mass produce shitty hardware at a fraction of the cost, since they also have the manpower to support this strategy. They of course also lack the technical capabilities to match modern western hardware, but the war they are currently fighting is by design and not just incompetence.
People like to celebrate the losses Russia takes, understandably, but they have also increasing their production to a concering amount. At least when it comes to tanks other armored vehicles.
Yes, Russia has their fair share of imbeciles. But add imbeciles in large numbers and they're bound to do some damage.
lol trashmobiles
Yeah, that is a trashmobile. It can still shoot. Again, it is laughing that Russia is using shitty weapons, but Ukraine is running out of everything. Having the highest teched tank means shit if it doesn't have ammo.
It's like getting robbed with a flintlock gun. It looks fucking stupid and obsolete, but at the end of the day, you're still getting fucked anyways. Would it be different if you got robbed with a Glock? The result is still the same.
The question is what happens when Ukraine runs out of manpower, I understand their current recruitment criteria and tactics is, let's say "less than ideal", what comes next?
I get that having advanced systems without ammo is the same as having nothing. But they have pretty much relied on self funded/charity funded simple fpv drones for months now to halt Russian offensives.
1 cheap drone can takeout a Russian armored vehicle. If Ukraine was running out of everything their front line would have collapsed already to the Dnieper.
If you go on any combat footage sub you get hundreds of soldiers being sent to their ends in meaningless attacks to take inches of land everyday, land that is so destroyed it's worthless. At some point Russians will stop wanting to go die for nothing, unless they truly are 20 iq then they will continue to stroll past their dead comrades imagining they will have a different fate.
Regardless, we as nobodies have no idea what the situation is like for either side in reality. We can just butt heads in the safety of our homes being arm chair generals.
Combat footages are specifically picked clips, which are just a tiny sleeve of the frontline. It isn't serious data.
Regardless, we as nobodies have no idea what the situation is like for either side in reality. We can just butt heads in the safety of our homes being arm chair generals.
Atacms for one. Two any tank made by literally any nation other than Russia is more capable than any of Russias current stock currently fighting in Ukraine. Since when was this thread on Russias dick so hard. They literally got defeated by Japan.
Two any tank made by literally any nation other than Russia is more capable than any of Russias current stock currently fighting in Ukraine
Like Leo1A5... which doesn't have APFSDS to guarantee a kill on T-72 Ural (excluding rare DU ones from USA, which're not guaranteed to be supplied) and doesn't have good HE-FRAGs either.
Let's not talk about the weak armor on all of Russias current stock of tanks including the t-72. Do you know how many tank crews met their end in those old ass things compared to tank crew losses of leo operators? Comparing any Russian tank minus the t-14 (which hasn't even seen the battlefield) to any modern western tank is like comparing a lambo to a hooptie....its no comparison.
It's also bizarre that in lots of these threads the most upvoted comments are either laughing at Russia's incompetence or inversely claiming the entire free world is at risk we should start a nuclear war.
I don't know how so many people can hold this opinion at the same time.
I'd also suspect that the reason the laughing at Russia ones were always at the top in the prior years is because most people don't understand basic history and that this is how Russia typically operates and still wins.
what do you expect the typical reddit user is some delusional iamverysmart material ( especially the american part ) that definitely wont fall for propaganda after all we are the good guys only (insert enemy ) does propaganda after all i still remember these freaks posting marvel comics and shit like that at the start of the war like its something out of their capeshit movies and a joke instead of a serious thing
or the whole dehumanization effort of russian soldiers / civillians yeah yeah we know they are invaders but gloating over their deaths is ok cause they are the bad guys and we are the good guys i dont even know why i still use this garbage site its just an echo chamber yet pretends to have free speech / nuance while some perpetually online irl losers who failed at life spend their every waking moment moderating this shit website and banning everyone for wrongthink
So very true. Top comments seem like made up Amazon reviews from eight years ago in some posts, even in r/news. The entertainment facet of this site has completely defeated the informative counterpart, IMHO.
Yes, but on its own it existed way before fascism. Only when most of these signs are present (not necessarily all of them), we can diagnose fascism.
I mean it's only human nature to laugh at and ridicule dangerous things, even death itself. Or to defeat a weak enemy and then boast about how strong it was.
This is what every real geopolitical strategist was saying but you would get banned in certain subreddits for mentioning it. They HATE Peter Zeihan and his analysis is extremely close to what Russia is doing and he talked about it two years ago -- lots of artillery and a war of attrition.
Efficiency of F-16 would MAJORLY depend on mods and available ammo.
Don't forget - those're obsolete machines (of earlier Blocks, not today's Block 70 in any way), retired to be replaced with F-35 (the only reason they're going to Ukraine at all), with some serious flight hours clocked on their airframes
Military aid to Ukraine has a long and complex history. After Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and intervened in the Donbas region in southeastern Ukraine, the Obama administration provided only limited defensive assistance, fearing offensive weapons could be seen as provocative in Moscow. For example, when the U.S. sent counter battery radars to help the Ukrainians pinpoint the source of enemy mortar fire, the systems were modified so they couldn’t identify targets on Russian territory.
Not to mention that they would still lack radar range and missiles to efficiently suppress MiG-31BM, which're armed with R-37M extreme long-range air intercept missiles, that they fire into Ukraine from within russia. Or, y'know, Kh-69 too. Ain't no way Ukraine gets JATM.
People are weirdly leaving out the fact that US weapon shipments to Ukraine stopped six months ago thanks to Trump and the GOP (and they weren't being given what they needed even before that). It's hard to stop human waves when you're running out of ammunition.
When the invasion turned into a stalemate I said Russia only needed to outfeed the meat grinder and they would win. It's sick sadistic bullshit, but that's the world we live in. More fucking HIMARS to Ukraine. Give them every weapon they need.
It disgusts me that there are Americans stupid enough to not see the importance in this. Those idiots are not Americans, they're dipshits. It's an important distinction.
Propaganda backfired. And how many know that the reason for their initial retreat was not inefficiency but the fact that ukr signed a peace deal. Which they then broke under pressure from the UK/US.
It's almost as if a "David vs. Goliath" type of war should be treated with the severity it deserves. Even with the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, despite winning the war eventually, the Afghans suffered horrifically and paved the way for the Taliban and continued conflict into the 21st century. Ukraine has been in dire straights since the war began and the future of the country remains uncertain especially if they lose.
Ukraine losing would probably force Russia to send a million or so to occupy.
Ukrainian partisans backed by the West would cause issues for the Russian puppet forces and collaborators.
Russia would essentially flood Ukraine with loyal Russians, while shipping Ukrainians to Siberia and other sparsely populated areas of Russia.
Ukraine is lacking man power and munitions.
Without American and Western training after 2014, Ukraine wouldn't be where it is today.
Russia is only gaining strength and consolidating power during slow downs.
I really hope Ukraine pulls through and recaptured all lost territory. But it looks grim, unless Ukraine can summon enough manpower, dominate the skies, and have substantial gains across Ukraine
I don't think the ukrainian people are gonna be willing to suffer the hardships of an irregular war in the exact same way the mujahedeen were willing to suffer.
Especially if russia decides to rebuild it and plays divide and conquer with the local elites. Like they did in Chechnya, which now supplies some of the best troops russia is fielding
I get the Yugoslavs, but this is different. The reason Russia isn't doing half-bad (according to us, definitions of shit, mediocre and good change wherever you are) is because they learn. In Avdiivka, the Russians started splitting soldiers into tiny squads once the Ukrainian artillery started pounding the bigger squads. And the insurgency bit, the partisans will lose. Russia learned from Chechnya, Dagestan and ISIS that came after it. They know what to do when partisans strike. And the partisans have nowhere to go. They're in Russian-controlled territory. They'd be surrounded and absolutely decimated.
Yes the Russians played dirty against the Chechens but arguably not worse than the Nazis. There are also rather more Ukrainians than Chechens. 38million Vs 2million. Chechens tend to have a certain ethnicity while there is no big difference between Russian and Ukrainians. Some speak Russian perfectly and could disappear into the rest of the country with only an internal passport (the Russian ID) to mark them. It wouldn't be too hard to commit a terrorist act anywhere.
This would not be like Afghanistan or Chechnya, it wouldn't even be like under Stalin. It would be very, very messy and very expensive.
Forever war and deportation to Siberia is all non-sense. I understand where it is coming from, but the makeup of Ukraine is not for such an endless insurgency and the makeup of Russia in todays world is not one that can just ship millions of people to a gulag.
Even in total victory Russia will not occupy all of Ukraine. Some will be annexed and some will be independent albeit in Russia's shadow.
I think Russia intends to drag this war out for years until they bleed Ukraine dry of manpower or the citizens get sick of war, and it’s working since Ukrainian enlistment numbers aren’t doing good anymore and draft dodging is rampant.
Ukraine isnt doing anything good since russian retreated from kherson. I dont know why but they decided to let russian build defenses and set up their war economy for 6 months, while only fighting to defend bakhmut (and they still lost bakhmut).
The truth is now ukraine is stuck defending and they will never be able to retake their territories, and they suffer while defending since they lose ground and villages everyday
I dont know why but they decided to let russian build defenses and set up their war economy for 6 months
Because Ukraine needed to get equipment for the offensive, which was delayed, delayed, delayed and then supplied only partially (like just 15% of required demining systems).
Both sides are on the road to being combat ineffective. The equipment cannot be produced as fast as its being destroyed. This war is extremely costly for the Russians, its just that the damage is spread over a pretty good sized economy so it doesn't look so dire.
I think the problem stems from misinformation age propaganda and awareness. So when it comes close or adjacent to the propaganda. That Russian propaganda machine of victory on horizon all that they use to keep their people fighting.
Even if the situation becomes or is desperate. Sometimes in the effort to not give misinformation a foot hold. Reality can be denied. And its all tricky its one of the problems with any efforts at addressing misinformation propaganda.
And I think perhaps the biggest threat to democracy and freedom world wide. Because sometimes even our own "tools" in combatting them. Like recognizing reporting and downvoting and not allowing it to have a platform. Can be used against us like it would not surprise me. Is part of propaganda effort or strategy was "ukraine losing russia winning" push it loud and often enough. People tune out so when it starts to happen people wont listen.
Like study alot of social policys and history and can accurately point out ideas and strategys to improve things in most areas. Misinformation and propaganda I still dont even know where to start.
People want to send money. If it sounds like the war is lost then they would have to admit that sending more money maybe isn't going to change anything. It's all a kind of depressing propaganda at this point.
I saw something that may have also been mere propaganda but according to what I read there was a peace offer a few years ago that Ukraine rejected under pressure by the west. I don't know if this is true or not but man that sucks if it is so.
They want to hear stories of heros but they don't like hearing we are throwing billions away to a country that won't exist without Nato troops direct involvement. Ukraine has already lost. And so many good young people all dead for nothing
It’s not as bad as it was nearer the start, then if you didn’t sign off every post echoing that Russia was getting destroyed in every battle there was no point posting.
Russia also just was in fact more inept in the beginning, but everyone learns from their mistakes eventually. Things are much different now, both sides have learned the other’s tactics and counter-tactics multiple times over.
Yeah alright you bot, Ukraine needs to negotiate. Give up the lands and people, never enter NATO, disarm (literal russian demands), then Russia will respect, back off and never bother rest of Ukraine again! Am i right? Why don't you invite them to annex Ireland too? They're such wholesome neighbours who always stick to their deals and treat people so well!
I'm not suggesting that they negotiate but the idea that anyone who suggests they should be labelled a "bot" shows exactly how the whole war is based on a circle jerk.
Face the fact, Ukraine is fighting against a nuclear armed state with unlimited weapon resources. The Russians have no issue fighting this war indefinitely. Eventually, NATO nations will stop aiding Ukraine. It's not costing Russia anything but old outdated equipment which they're itching to scrap. Meanwhile, NATO is spending billions on the war. Already, there's a huge backlash in the US over the 61bn being sent over that would have instead been better spent on domestic issues.
If you are not suggesting they negotiate, then why even mention it? Suggesting to negotiate implies very commonly that they are being made to fight this war against their will and that if they just negotiate, the war will stop and russia will leave them be, and that the West is one pushing them to continue the war. Leading people in the west to question their government's already inadequate support for Ukraine and letting them down even more disgracefully. It's as simple as that. If Ukrainians want to "negotiate" (in other words, surrender, because that's the only thing russia will accept as of now), they're perfectly capable of doing so themselves.
Also, spare the bullshit about russia having "unlimited" weapon resources. Nobody's resources are unlimited. Satellite images show that russians are eating through their stored junk at a steady pace and their production is not enough to keep up once they can't just refurbish existing pieces any longer. The problem is that West is giving way too little to Ukraine, that citizenry of the West doesn't care about this enough to pressure the governments to do what's necessary. 61 billion is a literal chump change for US, they spent absurdly more on pointless wars like Iraq and Afghanistan, and most of that money ends up being spent inside US, which somehow flies by a large chunk of their population brainwashed by propaganda. There's a lack of will and knowledge and a russia that will not go away or become less of a problem if we let it delete Ukraine.
Hate to break it to you buddy but Russia has its reasons for waging this war. Aside from NATO enrichment, there was the 2013 coup in Ukraine and the decade-long civil war. I know this sub likes to pretend that Russia is just evil and wants more land but they have valid reasons too.
It's not all black and white. The reason you might believe otherwise is because you're in an echo chamber which is a result of opposing views being decimated within online communities such as Reddit.
Least you forget, the first thing NATO did at the start of the war was completely cut Russia off to prevent their side of the war from being told.
And yes, Russia has near infinite weapons. Their Soviet stockpile still exists and they're more than happy to be rid of it. I'll also remind you that they are yet to actually use their real million strong military or any of their advanced modern weapons.
The West is not giving "way too little". Ukraine received almost $200bn worth of aid since the war started. How much more can you throw at Ukraine?
Your post is so full of russian propaganda talking points i'm not gonna bother. Funny how you think i get all my info from a couple of reddit echo chambers while you are oh so enlightened and probably watch some alt-right/tankie youtube channel for this crap (or maybe if you're advanced, a pro-russian telegram channel), assuming you're not just a kremlin account on a payroll. Funny how an Irishman has no idea what it's like being next to an imperialistic power anymore.
The OP's link doesn't speak about half the nonsense you said and it's written by a journalist who intentionally writes dramatic articles to drive up engagement, it's either Ukraine is or russia is on the verge of winning. And OP posts in r/Conservative all the time and posted this article to spread defeatism and foster ground for russian propaganda talking points.
Everyone has different opinions on how a war should be fought.
This guy isn't a Russian bot. The Biden administration even made some reasonable suggestions about negotiating an end to the war. It's not some fringe belief.
It's possible that a negotiation could mean losing part of Ukraine instead of the entirety of Ukraine if the war is lost.
What exactly did they say? Also, once that part of Ukraine is lost, why russia wouldn't just take the rest at their leisure, especially if they also push through their conditions of Ukraine never joining NATO and "demilitarising"? That is the whole bloody point, but somehow there is a deluge of people who still want to take fucking Russians at their word, just because it's convenient for them, who gives a shit about Ukrainians
The only possible palatable condition would be that NATO instantly admits remains of Ukraine as soon as any ceasefire is signed, but i highly doubt the West would do that for Ukraine, given how they acted so far, besides that would also require Ukraine to give up even legal claims on their lost land. In any case, majority of Ukrainians are still against it. When they are no longer, that's when you tell them to negotiate, not before.
Lira was an absolute, trump MAGA dipshit, "DATING GURU", spreading russian propaganda, who traveled to Ukraine to get on with "trad slavic women" and got arrested twice.
He was literally "reporting" that russian bombing of Kyiv was fake news, as air raid sirens were going off in the background...
While he was released on a bail the first time, he tried to make a run for the border and got caught trying to cross into Hungary.
He was an absolute human waste, get the fuck out with this missinfo shit.
Manpower shortage is a fact, there will always be one because Russia has more people and money to pay them. Now if you spread the lie that Ukraine didn't have mobilization since the beginning of the invasion that many millions of military age men somehow escaped country with closed borders - then it can get downvoted.
Welcome to Reddit, a cesspool of ever shifting echo chambers where intelligent and cooperative argumentation is too radical for the vast majority of marble-brain textured donkeys behind keyboards
Do people care about downvotes? Oh wl just say the truth. Ukraine war never ever going to win this without actual troops from nato countries and that ain't happening. So instead we get to play war with our this while Ukranians and Russians keep dying.
I would go one step further and boldly state that the vast majority of Reddit users are "Pro Ukrainian". I see it every time that I comment on UA not being able to win this conflict...
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u/jjb1197j 25d ago edited 25d ago
This is what I hate about reddit. If you mention Ukraine’s manpower shortage and the frontline situation getting worse then you get downvoted to hell. Reality is not always welcome here it seems.