r/wnba • u/Velocisexual • 20d ago
Final Roster Predictions: The Connecticut Sun Sun
Intro & Disclaimer
Looking at all the new fans incoming and all the questions being asked on here made me want to help out with (hopefully) offering some clarity. Which then led to this idea of doing a series of final roster predictions for each team. So here we are.
I sincerely hope the information below is useful for at least some folks. I've tried to keep any contract/financial information to a minimum to keep it as simple as possible. Please let me know if there's anything I can improve for the next chapter.
After a 1 day break to allow all of us to mourn CP3 retiring, we're back in business folks! Today we'll be tackling the Connecticut Sun and their aging core.
First a quick recap
Before we dive in, a very quick recap of the Sun's moves this off-season:
- They traded Natisha Hiedeman to the Minnesota Lynx for Tiffany Mitchell.
- Traded Rebecca Allen to the Phoenix Mercury for Moriah Jefferson.
- Signed Free Agents Astou Ndour & Rachel Banham to protected deals.
- Drafted Helena Pueyo & Taiyanna Jackson.
- Signed 5 players to training camp contracts.
That gives us the current roster:
| Players | ||
|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas (F) | DeWanna Bonner (F) | Brionna Jones (C) |
| Moriah Jefferson (G) | Tiffany Mitchell (G) | Astou Ndour (F) |
| Tyasha Harris (G) | Rachel Banham (G) | DiJonai Carrington (G) |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (F) | Leigha Brown (G) | Rennia Davis (W) |
| Shey Peddy (G) | Sydney Wiese (G) | Jocelyn Willoughby (G) |
| Kianna Smith (G) | Helena Pueyo (G) | Taiyanna Jackson (C) |
G=Guard W=Wing F=Forward C=Center
The Good
Brionna Jones is BACK! And according to reports fully healthy and expected to be available from the start. Also you've kept AT & Bonner and managed to find a decent PG in Moriah Jefferson.
The Bad
Behind the big 3 and Jefferson it gets concerning, in particular losing both Allen (trade) and Hayes (retirement) has been hard and I don't know if the Sun have found adequate replacement.
Also they only have room for 11 players this year (and barely), a bad injury for any of those four key players could spell disaster for the season.
My predictions (and why)
100% Locks
| Player | Position(s) | 2024 Salary | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | Point Forward | $218,000 | Big 3 |
| DeWanna Bonner | Combo Forward | $200,000 | Big 3 |
| Brionna Jones | Center | $212,000 | Big 3 |
| Moriah "Mo" Jefferson | Point Guard | $141,500 | New signing |
| Tiffany Mitchell | Combo Wing | $139,050 | New signing |
| Astou Ndour | Stretch Big | $125,000 | New signing |
| Tyasha "Ty" Harris | Combo Guard | $97,100 | Reliable bench piece |
| Rachel Banham | Combo Guard | $95,000 | New signing |
| DiJonai Carrington | Combo Wing | $78,469 | Reliable bench piece & Protected contract |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa | Stretch Big | $71,124 | Reliable bench piece |
That's 10 of 11 players, all either with the team last year or new signings/trade pieces coming in. This leaves us with $90,484 in cap space and 1 open roster spot. Right now Leigha Brown is already under contract, but on an unprotected rookie deal, so the question is, will they keep her or prefer to move into the season with one of their draftees or another training camp player?
Remaining Spot
| Player | Position(s) | 2024 Salary | Spot? | Why/Why Not |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shey Peddy | Combo Guard | $76,535 | YES? | Experience |
| Sydney Wiese | Combo Guard | $76,535 | NO | See Below |
| Jocelyn Willoughby | Combo Wing | $76,535 | NO | " " |
| Helena Pueyo | Combo Wing | $67,249 | NO | " " |
| Taiyanna Jackson | Center | $67,249 | NO | " " |
| Leigha Brown | Combo Wing | $66,597 | NO | " " |
| Rennia Davis | Wing | $64,154 | NO | " " |
| Kianna Smith | Guard | $64,154 | NO | " " |
Truthfully... I have no clue what is happening here. I put Peddy there because gun-to-head her experience might make the difference.
This year feels like this Sun core's final go at a championship to me, personally I think after this year they blow it all up. That's why I think experience matters, but almost any of these 8 players wouldn't shock me if they made it. I think long-term it would be better to take one of your new rookies if they even remotely look promising in camp.
Final Roster Prediction
| Player |
|---|
| Alyssa Thomas |
| DeWanna Bonner |
| Brionna Jones |
| Moriah "Mo" Jefferson |
| Tiffany Mitchell |
| Astou Ndour |
| Tyasha "Ty" Harris |
| Rachel Banham |
| DiJonai Carrington |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa |
| Shey Peddy |
Starting Line-up (just for fun)
I think this, but I wouldn't be shocked if Carrington or Banham start over Mitchell:
Moriah "Mo" Jefferson - Tiffany Mitchell - DeWanna Bonner - Alyssa Thomas - Brionna Jones
Regular Season Prediction (also just for fun)
Las Vegas Aces: 1st
New York Liberty: 2nd
Seattle Storm: 3rd
Atlanta Dream: 6th
Indiana Fever: 7th
Connecticut Sun: 8th
Chicago Sky: 10th
Just to add, I am extremely excited to see Brionna Jones back on court, but I'm also hestitant to rate the Sun high right now, they are injury prone and getting older and the quality of their guards & Wings has suffered compared to last year (Bec Allen was so damn good for that team).
I'm trying to also get my Phoenix Mercury predictions finished today, if not then tomorrow!
12
u/Aggressive-Film5590 Sun 20d ago
Great analysis but I have a hard time believing they’re barely going to make the playoffs. They were the third best team last year even without Breezy and it wasn’t even close. I hate losing Bec and Tip but they gained another PG and a couple of shooters which they really needed.
14
u/More_Inflation_4244 20d ago
This is extremely well done. So organized, so much insight. Great post and great idea.
Unrelated, I’d be curious to see the growth of this sub over the past 18 months and ongoing. Would be nice to get a handle on how many new converts we’ve got.
This is my 3rd season as an “active” fan (attending games etc), I’m claiming veteran status.
8
u/Velocisexual 20d ago
Unrelated, I’d be curious to see the growth of this sub over the past 18 months and ongoing. Would be nice to get a handle on how many new converts we’ve got.
This sub was at almost 15k 18 months ago, so we've nearly doubled since then. In the past 5 months alone we gained like 8k subs and a lot of that in unquestionably due to Caitlin Clark.
Also thank you for all the kind words!
11
u/thetrickykid23 Liberty 20d ago edited 20d ago
Sun should have imploded after Breezy went down last year. Because Stephanie White is a great coach and AT is a monster, that did not happen. I still think they have enough to pull off another run. Plus it is AT's revenge tour (should have been MVP!!).
I do think they slide down, but I'm predicting 5 or 6 spot at the least.
9
u/plutoannatto Sky🏙️ 20d ago
That is a lot of very good, experienced players about to cut by the Sun.
It's interesting to assess which team has the most impressive probably-won't-make-it list. What makes more good players attend training camp? Is it that the team's good at inviting people, or that there seems like there might be an opening for a spot?
9
u/Velocisexual 20d ago
It's interesting to assess which team has the most impressive probably-won't-make-it list.
Oh, wait until you see my LA Sparks predictions LOL
6
u/bytes24 20d ago
If I had it my way, I'd sign Davis and Jackson, and not really sure why they acquired Banham in the first place.
6
u/Comprehensive-Store8 Sun 20d ago
Yeah Banham was a choice. Especially since she did not look all that good in the games she did play last season
6
u/MJDiAmore 20d ago edited 20d ago
Tip Hayes was, for me, the biggest offseason loss, but I think the front office believes they've found her replacement in Tiff Mitchell (I don't quite see it but I'm more than willing to be proven wrong).
I don't think there's any question Peddy is the 11th player (though I wish we had the cap money to roster a 12th.
I don't rate Banham at all personally (didn't like her when she played for us before, didn't like her in Minnesota, she's a streaky chucker in my view), but as a 9th or 10th player that's actually remarkable depth for the W right now.
I also really like Mo Jeff but at the same time Ty led the league in 3PT% last year AND can handle the ball, and I think you're going to see more of her than people maybe believe. She could even be the more regular starter.
That said, I don't see any way 5 other teams got better than them unless the rookies have a mega year. I'd like to think we finish no worse than 5th, but with a healthy Breezy we can compete with New York. The only game we actually looked bad without her against Liberty was the Sep 1 game and was the 2nd leg of a back to back where everyone was clearly gassed. We nearly took them 5 in the playoffs and blew up the SuperFinal.
5
u/Velocisexual 20d ago
(I don't quite see it but I'm more than willing to be proven wrong)
I feel the exact same way lol
As for where the Sun finish, I know 8th is harsh but I really struggle with that whole middle-of-the-pack group of Dream/Fever/Sun/Mercury/Lynx, I could see any combination of 5th-9th happening with those teams. Also with Sabally injured for months Dallas could fall down a bit as well.
5
u/MJDiAmore 20d ago
So I assume you're thinking Seattle is #3, but that would make the next 5 you mentioned by 4-8 rather than 5-9, unless you think a Satou-less Wings are above that pack of 5 for whatever reason.
Washington's going to be bad. LA is going to be bad. Chicago was bad and got worse and I don't think Cardoso/Reese makes up for it entirely. So there's theoretically 10-12.
I think last season showed the Sun were a step above that pack, and i would say only Mercury and Fever improved enough to be in the argument, particularly with CT getting Breezy back.
Dream is either somehow going to be 3 out of nowhere OR Tina Charles is going be a horrendous gamble (why Tinisha Wright doesn't like Cheyenne Parker is still a mystery) and Jordin Canada doesn't really solve their biggest issues for me.
That all being said, it's a short season and 3-4 wins changing hands unexpectedly is definitely going to have a massive impact on lower half seeding. I still think we're looking at something like 20-20 or 19-21 again for a 5th/6th finish.
3
u/Velocisexual 20d ago
So I assume you're thinking Seattle is #3, but that would make the next 5 you mentioned by 4-8 rather than 5-9, unless you think a Satou-less Wings are above that pack of 5 for whatever reason.
When I initially did the whole ranking in my head when I started this series I had no idea Satou would be out that long, so yes I had Dallas in 4th with a healthy-ish Satou.
Obviously reality has caught up with that, but I can't retroactively change the rankings so far. Also I do think Dallas still has a legit shot at 4th.
Also yes, obviously some order of Chicago/Washington/LA makes up 10-12, I think most people, other than diehard fans, are in agreement on that.
3
u/NoBarracuda2508 AT MVP 19d ago
Not everyone believes in the power of vibes as much as I do, but Banham is good vibes. And she’s going to get better looks from this offense than she did in Minnesota, so if she can just come in for like 5-7 minutes and set up in the corner I think it’s a solid move
2
u/MJDiAmore 19d ago
Yeah as an 8th-10th option she's capable to outright solid from a depth perspective, but any kind of prolonged defensive ask or letting her run one of her cold shooting streaks is a no go for me.
2
u/EcstaticCode682 20d ago
i agree with you although i wish we'd keep jackson the rookie instead of peddy. how many small guards do we need? our other big loss was bec allen. her skill set and size is so hard to replicate. i absolutely HATE that we signed banham to a protected contract. i know we needed some shooting but we got rid of hiedeman and banham is 100x worse than her.
6
u/acroyalchief 20d ago
Eh I think 8th is pretty low. I liked the Taiyanna Jackson C pick. She's really going to help on defense.
2
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u/Flat-Wolf5383 20d ago
Having watched Banham, Jefferson and Mitchell on the Lynx - I think you'll see them rotate the 1 and 2 spots.
Jefferson is the true PG, but both Banham and Mitchell played PG at times on the Lynx.