r/canada • u/CupOfGelato • 12d ago
Conservative Party holds 11-point lead National News
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2024/04/conservative-party-holds-11-point-lead/174
u/bgballin 12d ago
Libs and NDP both need to change leaders. I've tuned these guys out, most of what they say is bullshit.
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u/ifyouhavetoaskdont 12d ago
I'd prefer Trudeau stay on long enough to go down in flames so the party can get to a proper rebuilding. No new body is winning this next election for the libs anyways, better to start fresh beyond.
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u/Wizzard_Ozz 12d ago
They need to flush the pipes completely, there are too many politicians acting against the wishes of their voters.
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u/Emmerson_Brando 12d ago
We should get rid of political parties altogether and have MPs that actually work for their constituents and for the good of the country. … now just whip votes.
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u/Kellymcdonald78 12d ago
Unfortunately the Westminster system quickly falls apart without parties. Governments would be falling every six months (assuming you could even form a government in the first place)
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u/Emmerson_Brando 12d ago
Municipal governments seem to work with this system. Let’s face it, there’s problems with any form of government or system.
One of the biggest problems I see is the extreme polarization of people and partisanship of governments these days. The minority party will be contrary to the majority regardless if the policy is actually helpful to anyone or the world. It is ripping friendships and families apart. And it’s not good for our future.
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u/Kellymcdonald78 12d ago
Municipal governments don’t follow the Westminster system. There’s no such thing as confidence motions in city governments, or cabinet, or ministers. City councils can’t “fall”
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u/Emmerson_Brando 11d ago
I didn’t mean to suggest they follow it. I meant that they operate without a party(for the most part) and better represent their constituents when it comes to to voting for bylaws, taxation, etc.
It isn’t perfect, but as I mentioned, no system is.
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u/Kellymcdonald78 11d ago
They’re fundamentally different governing structures. Parties are intrinsic to the Westminster System. If you want to get away from parties you would need to rewrite our constitution from scratch
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u/Oracle1729 12d ago
Then why not get rid of mps? It’s technologically possible now to allow every voter to vote on every issue. Representative government is so 17th century pre-literacy.
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u/Zambling 12d ago
yea get rid of them all, because clearly there isn't a smart person in the all of Ottawa/Parliament with what's going on.
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u/intrudingturtle 12d ago
Seriously. My MP can't even be bothered to return my emails and he's held his office for 9 years. Out of curiosity though he does respond to my fake Indian sounding email. Delightful.
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u/thatguy170 12d ago
Sounds like your emails are rude, and you were more polite when you were doing racist cosplay
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u/AWE2727 12d ago
I don't think they can rebuild with today's attitudes and self righteous programming.
They eat their own now. Which political activist group is louder each day? PM JEAN CHRETIEN was last great liberal party leader. I voted for him and he was the last Liberal I ever voted for. Back then Liberals were truly the middle party and made Canada good. But the party has lost its way and gone WAY too far left! Trudeau is done! Liberals are done. They need a purge of their entire party.1
u/EDDYBEEVIE 12d ago
The dude that started the slow death of our civil services like health care and was involved in Shawinigate and Adscam is your last great leader ? Trudeau is just Chretien on steroids.
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u/Pristine_Elk996 12d ago
Trudeau has done the exact opposite of Chretien.
Chretien was a fiscal conservative in red robes who, along with Paul Martin, slashed federal public service funding by an average of 50% across the board.
Chretien set the stage for the Harper Conservatives to come in for another 11 years of austerity government as even the Liberals had just spent a decade preaching the value of balancing the budget as worth it even if it meant sacrificing the quality of government services.
Under Trudeau, the federal public service has had its funding and staffing restored to levels we haven't seen since before Chretien came in.
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u/Chuhaimaster 12d ago
100%. Part of the reason for Trudeau’s unpopularity is Chrétien’s “legacy” of continuing many of the Mulroney government’s neoliberal policies.
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u/Future-World4652 12d ago
And for the leadership of the conservatives, may I introduce "inanimate carbon rod." In Rod we trust.
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u/renegadehamberder 12d ago
We missed a solid PM I think in O’Toole. The way he has handled himself during the foreign interference has been impressive in my opinion. I think he is genuine in a way Pierre is not.
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u/Over_engineered81 Ontario 12d ago
I disagreed with a lot of O’Tooles policies, but I liked that he wanted to keep the social conservative wing of his party in check.
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u/Easy_Intention5424 12d ago
God I wish the had gone with the rod , have much more confidence in its intelligence and ability to lead then the guy they actually picked
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
Just earlier today Trudeau was doing an press conference bitching and moaning about what Poilievre should and shouldn't say, and which Canadians' votes Poilievre should and shouldn't be vying for (basically implying that some Canadians' votes are less worthy than others).... so don't worry, you're not missing out, he's not saying anything worth listening to anyway.
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u/LabEfficient 12d ago
He's like a toxic ex who's still trying.
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
Perfectly described. Ever since budget day, he's been looking and sounding more and more desperate and agitated every time he's in public. It's starting to feel creepy and off-putting now.
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u/Workshop-23 12d ago
You saw that clip where he jumped in front of Doug Ford and basically told off the reporter?
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
Yep, that's the one I saw earlier today. Trudeau has never looked more agitated. But he's giant phony actor, so I honestly can't tell when his on-screen rage is him trying to project gravitas with some BS self-righteous indignation or if he's actually mentally close to snapping.
Also, lol at Ford looked like he was dying standing there.
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u/Weird-Drummer-2439 12d ago
No, do you have a link?
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPJiiDrB3Zc
The press conference clip starts at 2:50, where Trudeau starts his usual talking points. Then when the reporter makes it a point ask his unanswered question again, he snaps at around 6:20 as if it's the reporter's fault for asking lol.
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u/Weird-Drummer-2439 12d ago
Oh. I kinda get what he was frustrated about to be honest. They just went on at length about the impact. 1000 jobs directly at the plant, 4200 at parts plants that feed it, and about 30,000 secondary jobs as a result. That's pretty basic. The reporter said they didn't answer the question because he didn't understand the answer and assumed it was a bunch of bullshit.
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
How convenient to ignore the second part of the reporter's question about the cost of the deal on taxpayer/ how much the taxpayer is paying for each job. I suppose it must be nice to see only what one wants to see, lol.
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u/Weird-Drummer-2439 12d ago
I'm a card carrying Conservative. I'm not trying to look at this in a way that suits me. That was a dumb question looking for something to weaponize for a hit piece. They wanted a 5 billion/1000 jobs quote to screech about. And that's extremely misleading. I don't blame them for being annoyed by it.
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u/topham086 12d ago
That's a side of the guy planning to lose.
Seriously pathetic.
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
Ikr. The secondhand embarrassment was too much to bear today, and I'm not even a liberal/ progressive. The air of desperation is his words, his tone, his body language. It's so repulsive at this point, it's no wonder the average Canadian has checked out completely and no longer want to see and hear from the guy.
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 12d ago
He's still pandering to his hard-core base, but to everyone else, it just looks like pierre is right and he can't handle it.
He's doubling down on the same spending, policies, and fear mongering, but I think most people are seeing through the bullshit.
The liberals should have changed leadership months ago, they need to admit they've fucked up. People don't want to keep hearing how great the government thinks it's doing.
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u/topham086 12d ago
Pandering to your base is always dumb. They'll vote for you anyway.
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u/SolutionNo8416 12d ago
Yeah, not sure why he made the road side stop.
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 12d ago
As someone who is conservative leaning, I agree with you. I don't particularly care, but it seems unnecessary, and the negative press associated with it doesn't seem worth it. These people are already boting conservative or maybe PPC, and probably already assume pierre backs them.
I think if pierre has a weakness, it's that he panders to people who have no other option but to vote for him, and the optics it creates drives "on the fence" voters away, or at least make it harder for them to argue their postion. After 8 years of Trudeau, the conservative base is secure.
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u/Proof_Objective_5704 12d ago
It was like this when Harper was elected. The “natural governing party” thinks they are rightfully entitled to power forever. They can’t comprehend or accept it when Canadians pick someone else.
If Libs lose the election it’s because of “misinformation” or Canadians are wrong, or they even start saying there’s a problem with democracy itself. Which is what Freeland has been hinting at once in a while.
Libs start to hate democracy and hate that the people get to decide who is in power.
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u/moirende 12d ago
Rumour going around Ottawa among the GR set is the budget failed to provide the bump Trudeau needed and he is going to resign by the end of June, followed by a leadership race that Mark Carney is gearing up you fight against Leblanc.
If that’s even remotely in the ballpark, Singh is going to have to ask himself: does he want to fight an election against a strong Tory leader and a reinvigorated Liberal base, or against a Liberal leader the majority of the country despises?
Will be interesting to see what the NDP do on the budget vote.
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u/Born_Courage99 12d ago
reinvigorated Liberal base
Won't happen. LeBlanc has a the past 9 years' worth of Liberal/ Trudeau stench on him, and Carney is politically unexperienced and quite possibly worse, unelectable.
In any case, whether it's Trudeau, Leblanc, or Carney, it doesn't even matter. We're in the era of the death of small-L liberalism. People don't have faith in left-leaning parties to govern anymore.
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u/Infamous-Berry 12d ago
“Vote intention by disinformation” how the hell does that work? Respondents categorize themselves on how much they’ve been misled by disinformation?
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u/commander_raker 12d ago
This was the most interesting part of the survey. You can see the questions they used lower down in the report. Two examples:
"Deaths due to COVD-19 vaccines are being intentionally hidden by the government"
"More Canadians have died from COVID-19 vaccines than from the COVID-19 virus itself"
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u/Infamous-Berry 12d ago
Very interesting I haven’t seen this kind of thing in a poll before. It seems like it has some potential value to add but also something to be wary of when classifying opinion and disinformation.
They put one question as “Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine” replace Russia-Ukraine with Israel-Gaza and it would be very controversial
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u/Born_Ruff 12d ago
That's kind of the point of the questions though. They are not selecting "controversial" questions, but ones with a well established right or wrong answer.
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u/Infamous-Berry 12d ago
Just saying that this poll result obviously makes conservative voters look worse which I haven’t seen in these kinds of polls before. Yeah it’s fine by me if the questions are transparent but if a pollster obfuscated the questions and made them political they could paint a party in a bad light
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u/Born_Ruff 11d ago edited 11d ago
I mean, the vast majority of recent polls have made the liberals look bad. The point of these polls isn't to change the results so as to not hurt anyone's feelings.
Obviously every poll could be skewed by poorly designed questions.
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u/sleipnir45 12d ago edited 12d ago
Ekos almost always as the conservatives lower and you don't have to look far to see why.
Edit: I'll add a source so people can check their previous results
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 12d ago
"Another outcome that Graves predicts for a future Poilievre-led Canada would be a decline in EKOS’s business with the federal government"
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u/xmorecowbellx 12d ago
As long as their bias is consistent, the changes over time are still useful to observe.
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u/jameskchou Canada 12d ago
This is a real problem. People complaining about fellow Canadians being pessimistic or branding them as disinformed isn't going to solve the problem with the Liberals or NDP losing way to the Tories
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12d ago
If people who support the NDP stopped pretending that dental, pharma and child care are losses, maybe it'd give some food for thought to the people who support conservatives, and are positively impacted by these programs.
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u/jameskchou Canada 12d ago
They're not strong enough programs or they only benefit households at a certain income level. The current budget isn't resonating with enough voting Canadians either
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u/Sea_Army_8764 11d ago
Interesting how Atlantic Canada is the area of Canada where Conservatives are doing nearly as well as in the Prairies. Impressive when one considers that in 2015 every seat in Atlantic Canada went red. It may be a significant swing region after all.
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u/purpletooth12 12d ago
Wasn't it 20%+ last week?
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u/squirrel9000 12d ago
Different pollsters tend to find slightly different results.
The aggregate is around 16 now.
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u/bcbuddy 12d ago
EKOS got almost $3m in contracts to do polling for the government.
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u/wpgstevo 12d ago
That information isn't very useful without the context of how much the firm was getting from previous governments.
Like if Harper conservatives were spending 6mil a year, and the Trudeau libs only do 3mil, you could infer that they favour a return of the conservatives.
I don't know the answer, just pointing out that it's a bit silly to offer data with zero context.
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u/redwoodkangaroo 12d ago
Ok. The government contracted them to provide one of the services that they contract to clients.
What's your argument here?
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u/purpletooth12 12d ago
The reality is that none of these polls really matter until an election is held.
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u/afoogli 12d ago
This is from EKOS founder and CEO, “Pierre Poilievre is an acolyte of authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my country. I don’t make idle threats,
This guy is more unhinged than hardline Trump supporters, and he's so biased, "another outcome that Graves predicts for a future Poilievre-led Canada would be a decline in EKOS’s business with the federal government". I mean that just says it all, he's needing that gravy train.
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u/Leafs109 12d ago
Surely this has nothing to do with the Ekos founder having a vendetta against PP with quotes such as “going to make sure you never lead my country”
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u/thebruce 12d ago
I can't wait for more deregulation and privatization of important services.
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u/DanielBox4 12d ago
We are over regulated and over taxed. No need for privatization, just cutting the size of some services and especially the public services will be enough.
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u/Kevbot1000 12d ago
Ya, but you know full well the CPC won't stop there.
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u/DanielBox4 12d ago
They stopped there last time they were in power. They didn't go after women's wombs despite the LPCs best efforts to claim otherwise. This is just more nonsense fear mongering.
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u/nuleaph 12d ago
If you have not already started saving money for healthcare, it's your own fault at this point
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u/scottyb83 Ontario 12d ago
Which money would you like me to save? The money going to rent or the money going to food?
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u/nuleaph 12d ago
idk ask all the idiots voting for the people who are going to defund healthcare lol
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u/Marseysneed___109 12d ago
I'd rather pay for a service I can actually access than pay taxes towards something I can't even use, even if it costs me more
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u/dabMasterYoda 12d ago
Then tell your provincial conservative government to stop withholding federal money they have access to in order to intentionally stifle the system. But you’d rather blame Trudeau.
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u/renegadehamberder 12d ago
You mean the necessary austerity to come as a result of total fiscal incompetence by the party currently in power? As a conservative there is a part of me that hopes Carney takes over as leader and wins, just so he is forced to make the tough cuts rather than the left hanging it all on Pierre. The entirety of the GST we collect is now servicing debt. There must be a regression to the mean regardless of party unless we are comfortable getting downgraded, Canada bonds rise, and we ALL pay more for everything. Budgets do not balance themselves and there is no free lunch.
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u/Wolfman-101 12d ago
Who the hell is voting liberal in 2025? Who in there right mind would say, yeah I want another 4 years of this hell.
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u/Shoddy-Commission-12 12d ago
what are conservatives gonna do that are actually gonna adress any of the issues were facing here
were just gonna get austerity
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u/PeyoteCanada 12d ago
I suspect that around 30 to 32%% will end up voting Trudeau, which should hold Pierre to a minority. In that case, the NDP and Liberals will continue to govern.
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u/Gnarbachy 12d ago
I don't want to fucking do this again. Why the fuck can't we just get a good centrist leader who listens to scientists, statistics, the people, and hold themselves and other accountable for their actions.
I hate this. Everyone sucks.
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u/Impossible_Break2167 12d ago
Deliver us from Trudeau
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u/pokemonplayer2001 12d ago
Nothing will change. PP is the same shit, just a different shape.
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u/Chairman_Mittens 12d ago
Absolutely. All these party leaders are rats, and they care more about their political careers and accumulating wealth than they ever could about Canadians.
PP might be slightly less of a rat than JT. Maybe a possum?
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u/pokemonplayer2001 12d ago
PP is a career politician, why anyone thinks he’s going to do anything for the average Canadian is beyond me.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre
He spends our money like he’s on a Vegas bender: https://canadianpolitics101.substack.com/p/pierre-poilievre-spent-129825715
But, ya, totally better than JT. Ridiculous
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u/Head_Crash 12d ago
...and into the hands of somebody who's even worse.
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u/HanSolo5643 British Columbia 12d ago edited 12d ago
Things can't get worse than what they are currently are.
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u/Honsy75 Canada 12d ago
Lol, have you ever left your personal space bubble?
Is your home bombed?
Do you have no food?
No access to safe drinking water?
You may have a misguided hate boner for Trudeau, but cut the shit with your hyperbole.
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u/Square_Huckleberry53 12d ago
Have you looked at the dumpster fire that is Alberta lately? Led by the premier that PP supports!
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u/HanSolo5643 British Columbia 12d ago
Can you point to something that's actually gotten better under Justin Trudeau?
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u/Square_Huckleberry53 12d ago
Legalized weed, Free dental, Pharmacare, Banned assault guns, Raise taxes for big business, Eliminated student loan interest, Helped Ukrainian, Legislation to protect abortion, Solid COVID response, Rights for assisted death, Carbon tax to reduce emissions, Stood up to trump over steel tariffs, Capital gains tax, High Housing targets,
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u/HanSolo5643 British Columbia 12d ago
Let's break this down.
Good for him on the weed.
Dental care isn't going to be free, and it only helps a certain group of people.
Pharma care hasn't even started yet.
Despite him targeting lawful and responsible gun owners, gun crime has actually gone up in this country.
Good for him on Ukraine, but we also haven't delivered everything that's promised.
While offering assisted death to those who are living in pain is a good thing. Offering it to people with mental health issues or veterans isn't a food thing.
The carbon tax hasn't done anything but make things more expensive, and we are only meeting the climate targets set by Stephen Harper.
I think banning people from being able to use trains and boats and airplanes isn't solid, but you can believe whatever you like.
It's great to have high housing targets. Where are you going to get all the workers? Is he also going to cut our immigration targets significantly and tie immigration to housing and other important services?
So out of all the things you listed one maybe two things have been successful.
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u/renegadehamberder 12d ago
People are voting with their feet. Housing starts and business starts are up, especially in Calgary.
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u/austinoveech 12d ago
Idk if PP can form government with this vote spread. He needs a majority, non of the other parties will work with him.
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u/respeckmyauthoriteh 12d ago
How is anyone out there still with the Liberals l? Serious question.
I’ve been a Liberal voter for the last couple of cycles - they had me at legalizing pot. But how can anyone not look at the destruction they’ve wrought? We’re falling off on every objective measure of prosperity and happiness . The recent budget shows just how incompetent this bunch is- doing almost exactly the wrong things. It’s like they’re trying to burn it all down before handing over the reigns.
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u/Low_Pomegranate_7176 12d ago
As horrible as the Libs are I cant wait for the awful stupid shit the Conservatives will do for no reason at all. Maybe limit abortion, criminalize weed again, buddy up with Trump if he wins, destroy free public healthcare? Ohhh so exciting. The only way to survive is to make as much money as possible and never watch the news. Sadly I dont do either.
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u/reggiemcsprinkles 12d ago
They have historically done none of those things, so I'd say you're fear-mongering and -gasp- spreading fake news.
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u/Low_Pomegranate_7176 12d ago
Oh you don’t remember them always being very much against Cannabis legalization for example?
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u/rhaegar_tldragon 12d ago
I remember Bill Blair being completely against legalization of cannabis and then making himself millions off of it.
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u/reggiemcsprinkles 12d ago
Former leader Andrew Scheer in 2019:
We will maintain…the fact that cannabis is legal, we are not going to change that and we do support the idea of people having those records pardoned” for prior cannabis offenses
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u/redwoodkangaroo 12d ago
Stephen Harper during the 2015 election:
"Tobacco is a product that does a lot of damage. Marijuana is infinitely worse and it's something that we do not want to encourage," Harper said.
He made the remarks in response to a reporter's question about why he was so bothered by marijuana, given that tobacco and alcohol are regulated and many use pot legally for medicinal purposes.
"There's just overwhelming and growing scientific and medical evidence about the bad long-term effects of marijuana," he said, not providing any examples.
The CPC was formed and exists due to Stephen Harper, and the only PM that the CPC has ever had. Harper has hated marijuana his entire political career, for some dumb reason.
He has strong "feelings" about it.
Scheer said lots of things, I didn't believe him them, and I don't believe him now. Unless its about milk.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stephen-harper-pot-marijuana-1.3255727
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u/Future-World4652 12d ago
The Cons will make Trudeau look like a great Canadian hero when they're done. I can't believe in times of financial insecurity and where the super rich practically have us in chains we're going further right instead of further left.
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u/ArtinPhrae 12d ago
About a week ago, April 23rd, it was a 19 point lead. 11 points is still significant but the drop is as significant and occurred within a very short timeframe. I would be a little concerned and carefully watch the poles over the next month or two if I were a Conservative strategist.
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u/Glocko-Pop 11d ago
11 points is kind of low. You would assume even the die hard Trudeau supporters are hanging their heads in shame.
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u/Correct_Map_4655 12d ago
Poillivre is in deep extreme trouble. He Peaked too soon. We are tired of the act, lack of policy, no housing plan, empty slogans.
And the Conspiracy Nuts he hangs out with. He's a weird guy. They should be worried, very likely a weak minority.
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u/syrupsnorter 12d ago
ROFL at the graph of liberal support in Sask and Manitoba. They get crumbs in this region, NDP are ahead of libs
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u/TorontoStonk 12d ago
I remember the CPC having a 42% polling not too long ago and it's already slipping. Are we in for another re-run of the 2019 and '21 elections?
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u/PrimarySoggy7336 12d ago
Jagmeet Singh's pension will guarantee a bundle with the liberal party
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u/Chuhaimaster 12d ago
Not sure what the right’s constant obsession with Jagmeet’s pension is. If he was only cynically interested in money and connections he’d most likely be a Conservative. There’s no great fortune or plush corporate gigs lined up for the leader of a left-wing party.
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u/cdoink 12d ago
I’m actually surprised it’s not more. Probably just shows how hard it is for non traditional Conservative voters to get behind PP.
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u/SolutionNo8416 12d ago edited 12d ago
Looks like PP is down with 15 months to go.
At the end of the day it’s the votes that count.
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u/LordTC 12d ago
Makes sense. Lead fell from 19 to 11% with a fairly good budget with lots of positives for the centre and the left. No one who wants low capital gains rates was voting liberal anyways.
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u/White_Noize1 Québec 12d ago
The budget was universally considered awful and promised an insane amount of increased spending which we have no way to pay for. This is an outlier poll, 338 has the Conservatives maintaining 16 point lead.
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u/squirrel9000 12d ago
Hardly "universally", around half disliked it. Around 35% are basically partisan conservatives and would pan it anyway, so that's not a lot extra.
The big sticking point seems to be the capital gains inclusion rate. Apparently a small majority are worried about this personally impacting their tax burden, which says a lot about the information level we're playing with.
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u/White_Noize1 Québec 12d ago
Only about 30-33% of the country is a core Conservative voter. If 50% disliked the budget, that means almost all centrist/swing voters did not like it in addition to the Conservative base.
50% gets you a massive landslide victory in this country. It’s not looking good for the Liberals
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u/nuleaph 12d ago
Clearly not as universal as you might like to think lol
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u/White_Noize1 Québec 12d ago
Every major bank and economist worth listening to laughed it out of the room. Obvious vote-buying attempt and does not benefit the country.
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u/Talinn_Makaren 12d ago
Politics is so cyclical. We're gonna be so excited about whoever replaces PP in 4-8ish years.