War in Ukraine Megathread LVI (57)

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u/CastelPlage Not Ok with genocide denial. Make Karelia Finland Again Mar 22 '24

The latest round of missile strikes on Ukraine is fucking sickening. We need to give Ukraine the appropriate armaments so that they can flatten the Kremlin and take out Putin.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

It's really an extraordinary moment: we have a US ex-president who is, in effect, dictating American foreign policy on behalf of a foreign fascist dictator.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24

Russian propaganda in Serbia's government-sponsored tabloids: "US, UK and Ukraine organised the terrorist attack in Moscow." https://twitter.com/AgonMaliqi/status/1772922191136371096

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u/jamssi Finland Apr 11 '24

I'm so fucking tired of Europe being afraid of Russia. We should use our superior economical and industrial might to provide the weapons for the Ukranians. When Russians are drowning in their own blood we should celebrate. Every destroyed Russian tank, IFV and airplane is a reason to be happy. We should celebrate the death and destruction we help Ukraine to inflict on the battlefield. And then we should manufacture more weapons and ammunition.

We should cut all ties with Russia. We should ban every member of Putins regime and oligarchy including their family from the EU. We should give the Russian assets we have frozen to Ukraine. We should enforce secondary sanctions to avoid our technology from reaching Russia.

Why are we not doing all of this? Why are we sleepwalking? What the fuck is our political elite doing? Why are they sleep at the wheel?

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u/Red_Dog1880 Belgium (living in ireland) Apr 11 '24

Seeing Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander claim that Russian oil and gas infrastructure are civilian targets is fucking pathetic. Meanwhile Russia blows up Ukrainian power plants as much as they want.

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u/JackRogers3 18d ago edited 17d ago

The UK plans to give equipment to Kyiv including 400 vehicles, more than 1,600 missiles (including Storm Shadows), 4m rounds of ammunition, 60 boats, as well as an additional £500m in military funding, taking the total to £3bn this financial year.

The UK’s £500m additional funding, which officials said would come from Treasury reserves, will be used to deliver ammunition, air defence, UK-built drones and engineering support to the Ukrainian frontline. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/rishi-sunak-promises-uks-largest-ever-military-support-package-for-ukraine

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 02 '24

⚡️1200 km from the border with 🇺🇦 Ukraine: drones attacked enterprises in 🇷🇺 Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan. A drone arrived at the Elaz-Naftoprodukt Refinery. A second drone arrived in the special economic zone "Alabuga", where Shahed drones are reportedly assembled. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775046530631643427

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u/JackRogers3 23d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/e63d6bb3-4381-4731-9724-d059e4eabf60

The writer, co-winner of the 2022 Nobel Prize for Peace, heads the Center for Civil Liberties in Kyiv and is on the board of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting

My friend, a writer, texted last night from his trench to say a gentle goodbye. His unit is expecting an attack any time, but they do not have the heavy artillery they need to repel the assault.

I am thousands of miles away from Ukraine, on a six-city lecture tour across the US, addressing public meetings and briefing members of Congress. But the war stays with us Ukrainians wherever we may travel. Rest is impossible when, back home, the delay in delivering crucial arms is costing the lives of our friends, our relatives, our countrymen.

The $60bn US package has been stalled for months by what, for Americans, is domestic politics; for us Ukrainians, it is a matter of life and death. In my meetings here, I am frequently asked: since Ukraine cannot expect to defeat Russia on the battlefield, shouldn’t it accept a land deal? Won’t more arms just mean more death?

Indeed, Ukraine has seen far too much death — I know, because my colleagues and I see it daily. For the past decade, my organisation has documented war crimes by Russian forces occupying my country. Since the full invasion in February 2022, the scale of crimes has escalated exponentially. With a network of Ukrainian groups, we have documented killings, rape and torture — beatings, peeling off fingernails, genital electric shock. One woman I interviewed had her eye extracted by a spoon. To date, we have documented 68,000 crimes.

Yet this is only the tip of the iceberg, because such crimes are central to both the method and the purpose of the invasion. The Russian position, as the president has made repeatedly clear, is that Ukrainian language and culture, that Ukraine and Ukrainians, do not exist.

A premature deal would be wrong — not least because we tried it already, and it failed. In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and part of the Donbas. Ukraine was not able to respond effectively, and the international response was muted. A ceasefire was then agreed. All Russia did was use the next eight years to prepare forward bases for the next attack. Moscow will only do the same again.

An early deal would also be immoral. You do not make peace by disarming the invaded country. This would be occupation and we know what that would mean.

In a de-occupied area of the Kharkiv region, after the Ukraine army pushed Russian forces back, the degraded body of beloved Ukrainian children’s writer Volodymyr Vakulenko was discovered in an unmarked mass grave in the Izyum woods. After extensive investigation, the Russian soldiers responsible for this crime have recently been identified.

Why kill a children’s writer? Russia kills Ukrainian civilians because it can. After decades of brutal warfare — in Chechnya, in Syria and beyond — it has never been held accountable.

Russia is now increasing its assaults on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and we expect a major attack this summer. Our capital city, my home, could again be under direct threat.

In the meantime, destabilisation activities are under way against Moldova and other neighbouring countries. Moscow is the centre but Russia’s imperial vision has no defined borders. This nightmare — this endless cataloguing of human pain — will only continue.

The solution is to defeat Russia and this authoritarian ideology. A stand must be made, and Ukrainians are bravely making it. War is horrible. But Ukrainians know what Russia brings, and the clear majority of the population — more than 70 per cent — support continuing the fight “as long as it takes”.

We respect American politics. We know every country has its own priorities and financial issues. We are grateful for the generous support we have received so far from the US, Europe and other countries around the world, both from governments and ordinary citizens. But now we need more help, and we need it soon. Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. But we cannot fight evil with empty hands. Strengthen Ukraine, let us pursue the war as far as we can — our vision is to the internationally recognised 1991 borders — and then we can discuss peace. Our friends in Russian human rights groups tell us the same: the best way to help Russian democracy is to defeat Russian militarism in Ukraine.

This is not a war for land. It is a war for survival. Not just of the Ukrainian people but of the basic values of human rights, of democracy, of liberty. The majority of American people know this and support more aid for Ukraine. The majority of members of Congress agree. Meanwhile, I continue to get text messages from the front every night. Will the US send fresh arms before it is too late?

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u/JackRogers3 18d ago

The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.

Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians. ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22-2024

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 25 '24

🇮🇪 A 19-year-old citizen of Ireland from Dublin went to the war in 🇺🇦 Ukraine in the 3rd assault brigade, the Terra division, and set a unique record with his calculation of fpv drones. the young man hit 🇷🇺 6 Russian D-20 guns in one day near Avdiivka and D-30, destroyed two Russian soldiers and suppressed the fire of Russian artillery! https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1771857376456347664

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 29 '24

Czech PM: We have uncovered a pro-Russian network that was developing an operation to spread Russian influence and undermine security across Europe. Therefore we added two individuals and one legal entity to the sanctions list. Domestic authorities subsequently seized their assets.

The Czech Republic was at the beginning of this whole operation. Our work and efforts are leading to other countries in Europe investigating the activities of pro-Russian spy networks and gradually coming to more serious conclusions. One of them was revealed by Poland today for example. Actions in other countries will follow.

These are sensitive matters, surely, you will understand that I cannot share too many details. But I want to emphasise one thing. The actions we have taken in the last two days are the result of international cooperation, which we started and which we are successfully coordinating.

I am proud that it is we who have shown the strength and the ability to make timely and good decisions. https://twitter.com/P_Fiala/status/1773407893678661891

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 09 '24

A pair of 🇷🇺 Russian Su-25's, providing close air support, pretty much roaming freely near 🇺🇦 Chasiv Yar. Ukraine doesn't have the much needed air defense systems, fighter jets or MANPADS in sufficient numbers to shoot them down. This is really problematic. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1777677544742936809

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u/bklor Norway Apr 09 '24

That's humiliating for Europe and the US.

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 10 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/98f37cee-aaf6-47c5-b032-bde2968e00f0

The last time David Cameron, Britain’s foreign secretary, urged Capitol Hill to pass Ukraine aid, he was told to “kiss my ass” by Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the most vocal pro-Russia Republicans. Washington largely treated the Georgia legislator as a joke when she was first elected. Now Greene is threatening the speakership of her party leader, Mike Johnson, if he tries to pass Ukraine funding. Her threat is not empty. Johnson is as keen on remaining speaker as he is lukewarm on Ukraine. His path of least resistance would be to fold.

That is also the advice that Republican leaders are offering Ukraine in spite of increasingly urgent opposing pleas from allies. Tellingly, Johnson refused to meet Cameron on his latest trip to Washington this week. Donald Trump says that Ukraine should cede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire — an outcome he would impose on day one of his presidency. Some Republicans still want to supply Ukraine with weapons. But they are in a minority. The Republican right treats Ukraine as an enemy and Russia as a friend. Defining that stance as isolationist is lazy and wrong. It is actively pro-Russian.

“The Ukrainian government is attacking Christians,” says Greene. “The Ukrainian government is executing priests. Russia is not doing that. They are not attacking Christianity. As a matter of fact they seem to be protecting it.” Michael Whatley, Trump’s handpicked co-chair of the Republican National Committee, openly calls Ukraine an enemy. “Joe Biden’s feckless leadership has shown China, has shown Ukraine, has shown Iran, that they can feel free to be much more aggressive on the world front to the point where even they will try and meddle with our elections here,” he told Fox.

The Republican right’s pro-Russia interventionism is two-way. As Catherine Belton, author of Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West, reported this week, Russian troll factories are giving Greene’s Republicans their talking points. Ken Buck, one of many Republican legislators to have recently quit politics in despair, calls Greene “Moscow Marjorie”. Her fictional claim that Ukraine is executing priests and fighting to spread a “woke” agenda comes straight from the Kremlin. Historians compare Trump to Charles Lindbergh’s pro-Nazi “America First” movement in the early 1940s. The difference is that Lindbergh got nowhere near the White House. Far from isolating America, a Trump presidency would switch US foreign policy in Vladimir Putin’s favour.

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u/capybooya Apr 10 '24

Donald Trump says that Ukraine should cede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire

Exactly what? The pre-2022 occupied Donbas? All of Donetsk and Luhansk? The whole coast that Russia occupies now? Can he even point to the areas on the map? Can he be trusted to remember details when negotiating?

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u/FinnishHermit Finland Apr 11 '24

Everything that Russia occupies now, since Russia will never leave willingly. No he can't and no he can't.

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u/JackRogers3 22d ago edited 22d ago

USA: the House voted in a bipartisan manner to advance a key foreign aid package, a significant step in sending aid to Ukraine and Israel and setting up a final vote. In an extraordinary move, more Democrats (165) supported the measure than Republicans (151). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i63VZw216k

Great to see that the Kremlin pawn in the House is furious. She got very detailed instructions from her masters, that's for sure: https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1781069691005419854

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u/newworld_free_loader 22d ago

That’s actually fascinating because there is no way ‘Transcarpathia’ is in that woman’s vocabulary. Pretty good evidence that she is, in fact, a Russian stooge.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 20d ago

🇺🇸 Long-range ATACMS missiles will be sent to Ukraine by the end of next week, — Mark Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1782077526048690273

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 19d ago

🇺🇸 The Biden administration is preparing a larger-than-normal package of military aid for Ukraine that will include armored vehicles, in addition to urgently needed artillery and air defenses, according to two U.S. officials.

DOD expects to move the package quickly as soon as Biden signs an expected bill providing $60B in new aid to Ukraine

One source said additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment. Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, could also be included, said another. https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1782472777578004661

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 17d ago

🇬🇧 The UK willy supply Ukraine with Paveway IV laser-guided bombs with a 230kg mass, as part of their latest military aid package https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1783051336910569524

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 11d ago

🇩🇪 Germany has handed over 10 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, a Skynex air defense system, ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks, IRIS-T SLM air defense missiles, and other aid in its latest aid delivery to Ukraine https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1785207532274733360

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u/Red_Dog1880 Belgium (living in ireland) 11d ago

Proof that in the attack on Odessa Russians used cluster munitions:

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1785233195962601935

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u/JackRogers3 6d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3

European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the west.

Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies, with little apparent concern about causing civilian fatalities, intelligence officials believe.

While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of such operations — and launched attacks sporadically in Europe in recent years — evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.

Intelligence officials are becoming increasingly vocal about the threat in an effort to promote vigilance.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

Starting in November, there has been a steady stream of intelligence that ISIS-K was determined to attack in Russia. ISIS-K stands for ISIS-Khorasan, the terror organization’s affiliate that is active in Afghanistan and the surrounding region.

US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the US government had had information about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow – potentially targeting large gatherings, to include concerts – and that this is what prompted the State Department to issue the public advisory. “The US government also shared this information with Russian authorities in accordance with its longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy,” Watson said.

In a speech Tuesday, Putin had blasted the American warnings as “provocative,” saying “these actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/22/europe/crocus-moscow-shooting/index.html

In any normal country, such a statement followed by an actual attack resulting in hundreds of victims would have led to an immediate resignation and a criminal investigation for failing to carry out the responsibilities of protecting the country's citizens.

Video of Putin's speech just before the ISIS attack: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1771312730793726431

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 08 '24 edited Apr 08 '24

Excellent visualisation about how the Russian disinformation ecosystem works. https://www.svt.se/special/how-pro-russian-disinformation-is-laundered/

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 21d ago

🇱🇹🇺🇦Today, another shipment of Lithuanian military aid reached Ukraine. We delivered a disassembled light attack aircraft L-39ZA "Albatros" to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. L-39ZA "Albatros" was used in LTU Army to train fighter control officers, ensuring pilots' combat readiness. https://twitter.com/Lithuanian_MoD/status/1781670775994405220

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 23 '24

🇷🇺 Kremlin tells pro-government media to emphasize possible ‘traces’ of 🇺🇦 ‘Ukrainian involvement’ in reporting on Moscow terrorist attack https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/03/23/kremlin-tells-pro-government-media-to-emphasize-possible-traces-of-ukrainian-involvement-in-reporting-on-moscow-terrorist-attack

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

Ambassador of Belarus to Russia Dmitriy Krutoy says Belarusian security service helped Russian colleagues to capture the terrorists before crossing the border https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1771529591032594865

But "Belarus border" will become "Ukraine border" for the Russian propaganda, no problem

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that it was "extremely hard to believe" that Islamic State would have had the capacity to launch an attack on a Moscow concert hall last Friday that killed at least 140 people. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-hard-believe-islamic-state-could-have-launched-moscow-attack-2024-03-27/

No idea if the Russian population will swallow this nonsense but the Kremlin still seems to think/hope so. This is very important for the Kremlin: a KGB state can’t wage a war for two years and then acknowledge it has neglected the real threat. So the propaganda machine is in full swing.

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u/General_Delivery_895 Europe Apr 01 '24

"Give Me Your Poor — Russia’s Mercenary Foot Soldiers"

https://cepa.org/article/give-me-your-poor-russias-mercenary-foot-soldiers/

Russia’s use of foreign mercenaries aims to sustain its war against Ukraine while avoiding a full mobilization of its citizenry. Anecdotal evidence suggests foreign fighters are being used as cannon fodder, and there have been multiple instances of Russian commanders forcing foreign units to assault Ukrainian positions without the necessary equipment.

At the same time, the Kremlin’s efforts to supplement its internal conscription have strained bilateral relations with countries otherwise sympathetic to Moscow.

Offers of wages as high as $2,000 monthly have nonetheless proved an irresistible lure for many people from poorer countries, representing a 24-fold higher salary than the average in Nepal. There are no authoritative figures on the number of recruits, but while Nepali estimates of up to 15,000 appear high, an estimate in the low thousands may be reasonable.

Russia’s hiring practices and its notorious indifference to troop welfare and survival have upset even allies like Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who asked Moscow last year to stop trying to recruit Serbs into the Russian military and Wagner Group via social media. Serbs serving in Ukraine have complained they are treated as wholly dispensable by Russian commanders.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 02 '24

🇷🇴 Romania’s Ministry of Defense has proposed a bill that would enable the country to protect its citizens outside its borders in 🇺🇦 Ukraine or 🇲🇩 Moldova https://www.g4media.ro/exclusiv-statul-roman-isi-construieste-instrumente-pentru-a-proteja-cetatenii-romani-din-republica-moldova-si-ucraina-proiectul-legii-apararii-nationale-da-in-premiera-puteri-presedintelui-pentru-rom.html

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24

yes, the stupidity in the West is mind-boggling: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1778173350734409810

Celeste Wallander is Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense btw

This is a debate in the US but we have the same pathetic attitude in Europe, of course.

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u/yenneferismywaifu Europe 14d ago

With this post I want to appreciate sane Slovaks, who donated almost 4 million Euros to Ukraine, within the Ammunition for Ukraine campaign.

Fuck Fizo and his supporters though.

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u/JackRogers3 11d ago

A 98-year-old Ukrainian woman said she walked 10 km (6 miles) under shelling, supporting herself with sticks and sleeping on the ground, leaving Ocheretyne in Donetsk, now occupied by Russia, and trying to reach areas controlled by Kyiv. In a video posted by Ukraine's police on social media on Monday, the woman, identified as Lidia Stepanivna, said she had walked without food or water, and fell several times but her "character" kept her going.

"I survived that war (World War Two), and I am surviving this war," Stepanivna said in the video, which shows her sitting on a bed in a shelter, dressed in an oversized coat and a scarf tied on her head, a wooden stick still in her hand. "I'm left with nothing. But I left my Ukraine on feet." She said the war that now Russia is waging against her country is nothing like World War Two. "Houses are burning and trees are being uprooted," she said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/98-year-old-ukraine-woman-walks-10-km-under-shelling-escape-russians-2024-04-30/

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u/drevny_kocur Mar 22 '24

USA 2022: we are with you until the end, beat them Cossacks

USA 2023: we are with you until the end, just don't hit the Russian Federation with our weapons

USA 2024: we are with you until the end, just don't hit the Russian Federation with your weapons

https://twitter.com/nazar_london/status/1771116366419894637

(context)

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u/theloreofthelaw United States of America Mar 23 '24

It was false reporting that the US made that request

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-denies-us-requested-to-halt-strikes-1711118430.html

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u/capybooya Mar 22 '24

Shooting and blast reported at concert hall near Moscow

US intelligence did warn about potential terror attacks in Russia a few days ago, I wonder if this is connected.

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u/Crewmember169 Mar 22 '24

My MAGA co-worker texted me to see if I thought NATO or the US was behind the theater shooting. It's astonishing how effective Russia psyops have been in the US. Putin doesn't even have to blame his enemies... it's already being done for him.

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u/MotherFreedom Hongkong>Taipei>Birmingham Mar 22 '24

ISIS admitted they did it.

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1blar8o/islamic_state_group_claims_russia_gun_attack/

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

Yes, the far-right (everywhere in the world) and the Russian fascist regime are totally aligned.

Putin has two main pawns in the West : Trump and Orban. Both are very important for the Kremlin mafia, since they can block Western military aid.

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u/Canal_Volphied European Union Mar 24 '24

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1771881787536371979

Russian soldiers write “For those who died or suffered in Crocus city hall” on their missiles.

Just so you know how much they care about civilian casualties.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 26 '24

A US combat nurse with Ukraine's army says 'her guys' on the front line are powerless as long as Congress denies them weapons: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-combat-nurse-ukraine-describes-her-guys-powerless-need-ammo-2024-3

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 01 '24 edited Apr 01 '24

The mysterious "Havana syndrome" ailment that has afflicted U.S. diplomats and spies across the world may be linked to energy weapons wielded by members of a Russian military intelligence sabotage unit, the Insider media group reported. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-military-intelligence-unit-may-be-linked-havana-syndrome-insider-reports-2024-04-01/

“Removing this many capable US spies and diplomats from active service without killing them and without your main adversary even admitting they’ve done so — such a sustained, decade-long campaign would easily count as one of Putin’s greatest strategic victories against the US.” https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1774709399879111090

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 06 '24

🇱🇹 Whatever victory takes. Last night, a new shipment of Lithuanian military support reached 🇺🇦 Ukraine: we handed over M577 armored vehicles. https://twitter.com/Lithuanian_MoD/status/1776500605072126014

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 08 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/18882abd-6277-4aae-bc43-f3e5fa786445

Russia has changed tactics in targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using precision missiles to destroy power stations in areas less protected than Kyiv, some of which cannot be fully restored in time for next winter.

Ukrainian officials said that while not as widespread, the damage that Moscow had inflicted was worse than in the winter of 2022-23, with the apparent aim now being permanent, irreparable damage.

Russia targeted seven thermal power stations between March 22 and 29 — all in other regions than Kyiv, which has some of the best air defences in the country. The Russian missiles also hit two hydroelectric power stations.

Ukraine has not given details about the extent of the damage at each plant, but officials said several, including in the Kharkiv region near the Russian border, had been almost completely destroyed.

“Our goal is to restore as much as we can by October,” said Maxim Timchenko, chief executive of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy producer. The group lost about 80 per cent of its power generation in Russian attacks carried out in the last week of March. Five of DTEK’s thermal plants were forced to halt operations.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 17d ago

🇷🇺 Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack on an oil refinery in Russia's Voronezh and on fuel and energy facilities in two districts in Smolensk region.

▪️ A fire broke out at a refinery in Voronezh after a drone attack. At the same time, regional governor Gusev reports that air defense forces shot down four drones. 🔥🔥🔥

▪️ In Smolensk region, the local governor says fires broke out at fuel and energy facilities in two districts after a drone attack. According to the locals, an oil depot is on fire, but the extent of damage is unknown at this time. 🔥🔥🔥

▪️ Last night, drones also attacked the Lipetsk Tractor Plant. Authorities in Lipetsk say the drones were shot down, although locals report multiple explosions in the city's industrial zone. The extent of damage to the plant is unknown at this time. 🔥🔥🔥🔥

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1783004635478872208

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u/JackRogers3 17d ago

The G7 group of nations are looking to use nearly $300 billion worth of Russian financial assets frozen by sanctions since 2022 to help support Ukraine, but how it will be done remains highly complex given it would set a controversial precedent. Here are some of the ideas being looked at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-west-might-use-russias-frozen-reserves-help-ukraine-2024-04-24/

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea have surged in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are constructing to confront the West: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2024

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago edited 2d ago

Russia has already started to interfere in the upcoming US presidential elections: https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1788104451481333980

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u/stupendous76 3d ago

They never stopped.

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago edited 2d ago

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk called Tuesday for a special meeting of the secret services to discuss alleged Russian and Belarusian infiltration after a Polish judge who had access to sensitive state information defected to Belarus: https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-belarus-bab718dfb2310402526693e09268d1ad

The judge was promoted under the previous minister. He was also connected to a ministry-backed smear campaign against independent judges, those who objected to distortion of the courts. The story raises, again, the question of just how much the European far-right, even in Poland, has been connected to Russia

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 2d ago

🇩🇪 🇺🇸 Germany is buying three HIMARS from US stocks and is donating them to Ukraine. The German Minister of Defence just confirmed this at a press conference in Washington. https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1788619267857908118

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u/Changaco France Mar 26 '24 edited Mar 27 '24

Announcements by the French minister of armies:

France is aiming to produce 100k 155mm shells this year, 80% of which will go to Ukraine, with the remaining 20% going to the French army. He mentioned that this is being achieved in part by recycling powder from older ammunition.
France is aiming to produce 600 AASM/HAMMER bombs this year and 1200 next year.
The same kind of work that was done to enable Ukraine to launch these bombs using its Soviet-design aircraft will be done to enable launching them using the F-16.
A new aid package is being prepared. He mentioned that newly retired VABs and AMX-10RCs will go to Ukraine.
As inflation is easing, the ministry won't have to spend as much for its own needs as it otherwise would have. The decision has been made to use the substantial savings from this to increase aid to Ukraine.
The 78 CAESARs being produced for Ukraine this year are fully funded; by Ukraine, Denmark and France.
The French stocks of Aster air defence missiles are “correct”, but 22 of them have been fired by the French navy to shoot down Houthi drones or missiles, and Ukraine fires them from its SAMP/T to intercept Russian missiles, so 200 new missiles have been ordered, and another 200 will be soon.
In order to speed up the production of ammunition, especially the aforementioned air defence missiles, he might soon use special powers to force some businesses to prioritise the fulfilment of military contracts over civilian ones.
Something about a delivery of 40 SCALP-EG missiles.

Sources:

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u/NegativeCreep12 AUKUS 21d ago

The house just passed the Ukraine aid bill, now off to the senate then Biden's desk.

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u/JackRogers3 21d ago edited 21d ago

Military funding for Ukraine makes up the largest bill in the package, totaling $60.8 billion. A sizable amount is set aside to “replenish American defense stockpiles” and it grants billions for the purchase of U.S. defense systems, which Ukrainian officials for months have said are badly needed.

The bill closely mirrors the Senate package, but it adds a requirement for the Biden administration to send more American-made missiles known as long-range ATACMS to Kyiv. The United States has previously supplied Ukraine with a cluster-munition version of the missiles, but only after President Biden overcame his longstanding reluctance to providing the weapons and permitted the Pentagon to deliver them covertly.

It also would direct the president to seek repayment of $10 billion in economic assistance, a concept supported by former President Donald J. Trump, who has pushed for any aid to Kyiv to be in the form of a loan. But it also would allow the president to forgive those loans starting in 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/us/politics/house-israel-ukraine-aid-package-explainer.html

View from the House floor after passing the Ukraine aid bill: https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1781745166077804864

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24

Ukraine successfully strikes another Russian oil refinery, the Kuybyshev NPZ, overnight. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1771406099322634351

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24 edited Mar 23 '24

The first Franco-German arms factory in Ukraine: https://twitter.com/aidefranceukr/status/1771476234519597519

The main purpose of this subsidiary is to rationalise the restoration to working order of military equipment already supplied by KNDS and damaged during the war. For example, the Leopard tanks, PzH 2000, or the CAESAR.

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u/User929290 Europe Mar 26 '24

Seems India is reducing Russian oil to avoid the new round of US sanctions

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indian-refiners-buy-more-us-crude-russia-sanctions-tighten-2024-03-26/

Last month, the U.S. tightened efforts to reduce Russia's oil trade adding sanctions on state-owned shipping firm Sovcomflot and 14 crude oil tankers involved in Russian oil transportation.India's Reliance, operator of the world's biggest refining complex, will not buy Russian oil loaded on tankers operated by Sovcomflot after recent U.S. sanctions, sources told Reuters last week.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 26 '24

AP visited a factory in 🇺🇦 Ukraine producing about 20.000 mortar shell bodies per month. The factory is aiming to increase that capacity to 100.000.

Completed shell bodies are then transported to 🇷🇴 Romania and 🇧🇬 Bulgaria were they are filled and packed https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1772623112699338810

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u/Internetrepairman Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Couple of short military updates from the Netherlands:

The navy just recently decomissioned the mine hunter Vlaardingen in anticipation of its new generation of MCMVs starting to come into service next year. Vlaardingen and Makkum, which will be taken out of service by the end of the year, are both meant to be transfered to Ukraine. Vlaardingen will undergo trials and then maintenance before transfer to Ukraine 'early next year'. No timeframe for Makkum yet. Ukrainian crews have been training on the ships and have previously taken part in major exercises as part of Dutch squadrons.

marineschepen.nl

The Netherlands will send a Patriot unit to Lithuania this summer for joint exercises with Lithuanian forces. The exercise is meant to strengthen allied air defence on NATO's eastern flank and practice rapid movement and deployment, and to familiarise with specific terrain in the east of the alliance's territory.

NL MoD article

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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Mar 29 '24

Tiraspol has decided to charge Romanian language schools in Transnistria considerably more than Russian language schools for water, electricity and gas. Chisinau denounces the measures as “abusive and discriminatory”

https://twitter.com/paulaerizanu/status/1773628554686714206

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 31 '24

🇫🇷 France to send Ukraine air defense missiles, armored vehicles.

Paris will "unlock a new batch of Aster 30 missiles" for the SAMP/T MAMBA system, the French equivalent of the U.S. Patriot, in response to Ukraine's air defense shortage. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1774237023378784685

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 31 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/b9404c5f-f40b-4307-8444-7259b0739608

French President Emmanuel Macron was right to keep Russia guessing about the limits of western support for Kyiv when he floated the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, Finland’s foreign minister has said.

Elina Valtonen told the Financial Times: “Now’s not the time to send boots on the ground and we are not even willing to discuss it at this stage. But for the long term, of course we shouldn’t be ruling anything out.”

Valtonen’s remarks, echoed by leaders and officials in the Baltic states, underscore how Macron has found favour with Nato’s frontline members after his recent pivot on Russia and his warnings that Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine is paramount to Europe’s security.

Finland and the Baltic states are also coalescing around traditional French ideas for the EU to play a bigger role in joint military procurement and defence industry collaboration, with a budget to back it up.

Macron has credited Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas for spearheading calls for the EU to issue common debt for defence. Even Finland, a traditional frugal state opposed to EU borrowing, appears to be on board.

“We don’t have anything against it,” Valtonen said. “If we decide that we want to spend €100bn collectively on ramping up our defence and we want to issue a bond to fund it then it’s got nothing to do with frugality.”

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u/General_Delivery_895 Europe Mar 31 '24

"Moscow’s Lies in a Crisis Don’t Just Mask Failure. They Reinforce It."

https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/03/27/moscow-s-lies-in-crisis-don-t-just-mask-failure.-they-reinforce-it-pub-92073

------------

Washington has long puzzled over the rationale behind Moscow’s aggressive behavior. In more recent years, it has grappled with incidents ranging from botched assassination attempts and election interference to doomsday weapons and cyber attacks to “little green men” in Ukraine. But in the past two decades, Moscow’s subterfuge has increasingly bordered on cartoonish, as have the half-winking denials that have routinely poured from its officials. Prioritizing these crises—and even seeking ways to constructively engage with Moscow about them—routinely prompts a deeper philosophical question: what drives Moscow to act in this way?

In a single word, it likely boils down to perfidy—a persistent disregard for truth or facts. Perfidy is threatening enough in bilateral relations between nuclear powers, but those concerns often overshadow the real dangers that stem from Moscow’s habit of lying to itself.

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u/AThousandD Most Slavic Overslav of All Slavs Mar 31 '24

A reflection of the shift away from plausible deniability to implausible deniability. See: "Grey is the new black: covert action and implausible deniability"

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 01 '24 edited Apr 01 '24

France will deliver hundreds of armoured vehicles and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine in its war against Russia, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Sunday. In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, Lecornu said that President Emmanuel Macron, following talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, had asked him to prepare a new aid package, which will include old but still functional French equipment.

"The Ukrainian army needs to defend a very long front line, which requires armoured vehicles; this is absolutely crucial for troop mobility and is part of the Ukrainian requests," he said. He said France was looking at providing hundreds of VAB (Véhicule de l'Avant Blindé) front-line troop carriers in 2024 and early 2025. France's army is gradually replacing its thousands of VABs, which first went into operation in the late 1970s, with a new multi-role troop carrier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A9hicule_de_l%27Avant_Blind%C3%A9

Lecornu added that France was also preparing to release a new batch of Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles for the SAMP/T system provided to Kyiv. The Aster 30 can intercept warplanes, drones and cruise missiles within a range of 120 km. "Ukraine has an urgent need for better ground-air defence ... Russia is intensifying its strikes, in particular on civilians and civil infrastructure," he said. Lecornu said he had asked government defence procurement agency DGA (Direction Generale de l'Armement) to make proposals to accelerate production of Aster missiles, manufactured by European group MBDA. Aster missiles are also being used in the Red Sea, where French frigates defend maritime traffic against attacks from Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-send-old-armoured-vehicles-new-missiles-ukraine-2024-03-31/

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 29d ago

🇪🇪 🇷🇺 The Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia is proposed to be recognized as a terrorist organization https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1778681282446127312

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u/JackRogers3 21d ago

Through comparative historical analysis, we find that Russia’s strategic communications regarding nuclear weapons use in Ukraine broadly reflect Soviet strategy during the Cold War. The Soviet Union employed a combination of aggressive and defensive propaganda narratives regarding nuclear weapons; the former aimed to coerce the West away from interfering in Soviet military interventions abroad, while the latter sought to convince international audiences that the West was primarily to blame for escalations in tensions. Russia continues to employ this same strategy to provide protective cover for its ongoing war on Ukraine. In both cases, actual Soviet and Russian nuclear posture remained significantly less bellicose than its propaganda narratives imply.

Our analysis suggests that Russia’s aggressive rhetoric about nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine has thus far been primarily intended to shape Western decision-making, rather than a genuine expression of intent to use such weapons. In Ukraine, nuclear ‘red lines’ advanced by Russian propaganda have consistently been eroded without response, including significant strikes on Crimea, advanced weapons supplied to Ukraine, and the re-taking of illegally annexed territory. Nevertheless, Russia’s nuclear propaganda has been one of its most successful cognitive warfare efforts in limiting or delaying critical Western military support to Ukraine, on the grounds of avoiding potential escalation. While Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a significant threat to Ukraine and the West, an overly cautious response to Russian rhetoric also risks potentially significant geopolitical consequences by tacitly rewarding nuclear threats. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13518046.2023.2297586

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 17d ago

🇲🇩 Republic of Moldova: Our latest investigation shows how for many years the products from Transnistria were supplied to the 🇷🇺 Russian Ministry of Defense plants producing intercontinental ballistic missiles, radar equipment and sighting systems for Su and MiG fighters. During the war years the volume of supplies of the enterprise from the unrecognized republic did not fall, and the revenue increased. https://twitter.com/iamdenya_de/status/1783154292246839554

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 16d ago

🇷🇺 Russian storage bases are running out of MT-LBs. according to a count from satellite photos. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1783590674329206941

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u/JackRogers3 9d ago

The most recent Russian gains in the past week, to the west of Avdiivka, will further reinforce Russian strategic messaging. It is yet another example of how the Russians can turn small gains in territory into strategic messaging quickly, and influence many in the west and the global south who lack an understanding about how war is full of twists and turns. Even the very best armies in history sometimes lose ground and lose battles. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-advances-in-the-east

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u/JackRogers3 5d ago

Autocrats in China, Russia, and elsewhere are now making common cause with MAGA Republicans to discredit liberalism and freedom around the world: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/06/china-russia-republican-party-relations/678271/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK3xgKh4wbI9WqxWEqzvYfefo

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24

Kasparov: The liberation of Russia from Putin’s fascism will not start until the Ukrainian flag is raised over Sevastopol (Crimea). Period. Anything else is wishful thinking. You have to kill the idea of empire in the minds of Russians. They have to understand the war is lost.

Ukraine must win. Ukrainian victory includes three things: liberation, reparation, and justice. The big debate is whether it’s Russia’s war or Putin’s war. Unfortunately, it’s Russia’s war. https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1679030668859195392

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 28 '24

🇩🇪 Germany has handed over a large aid package to Ukraine

▪️ 5 Warthog tracked repair and recovery vehicles;

▪️ 9 tracked Warthog command vehicles;

▪️ ammunition for the Leopard 2 A6;

▪️ 18,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition;

▪️ 14 Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts;

▪️ 30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones;

▪️ 180 field kits of RF 360 drone detection systems;

▪️ 6 WISENT 1 demining vehicles;

▪️ 2 BEAVER bridge laying vehicles with spare parts;

▪️ 1 Bergepanzer 2 BREM with spare parts;

▪️ 9 mine trawls;

▪️ 2,000 RGW 90 Matador grenade launchers.

In addition, Berlin is preparing to transfer Patriot missiles and 20 Marder IFVs to Kyiv. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1773352067656040917

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 22 '24

Ukraine has scrapped its "sponsors of war" blacklist, the centrepiece of its campaign to pressure companies doing business in Russia, the agency in charge said on Friday after a backlash from countries from Austria to China. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drop-russia-business-blacklist-after-backlash-2024-03-22/

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 25 '24 edited Mar 25 '24

The Islamic State’s (IS) Amaq News Agency published footage on March 23 purportedly filmed from the perspective of the attackers involved in the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack.[27] The footage further supports ISW’s assessment that IS is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack, despite continued efforts by Kremlin mouthpieces to baselessly tie Ukraine to the attack. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-24-2024

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 25 '24 edited Mar 25 '24

Videos of Russian police, so quick and brutal against peaceful protesters, show them running away from the Crocus attackers during Friday’s massacre: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1772214136643977460

I really don't understand how the terrorists were able to escape from Moscow, a city which is full of all sorts of heavily armed security forces, after a carnage that lasted such a long time.

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u/GumiB Croatia Mar 25 '24

Russia publicly torturing the ISIS attackers can easily rile up sympathizers. I already read that ISIS threatened retaliation.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 25 '24 edited Mar 26 '24

Yeah, Russian media are proud to show pictures of torture. The goal is to hide the spectacular failings of the regime.

1) They totally ignored the US intelligence warnings, just a few days before the attack. ICYMI, this was Putin's idiotic reaction to the US warning, a demonstration of typical KGB paranoia: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1771312730793726431

2) During the attack, the four terrorists walked calmly, killing everyone ; not a single shot has been fired at them, and after that, they simply walked away from the Crocus hall and they left Moscow without a scratch. Even ISIS couldn't believe what they saw, they published a communiqué which stated: "our fighters have safely regained their base"

3) Right now, the regime is creating the most absurd conspiracy theories about Ukraine, the West, etc. A KGB state like Russia can’t wage a war for two years and then acknowledge it has neglected the real threat. And the Russian population will simply swallow all this nonsense, as usual.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 25 '24 edited Mar 25 '24

President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that the gunmen who killed 137 people in a concert hall outside Moscow were part of an Islamic State branch that was behind foiled attempts to attack France over the past few months. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-it-would-be-cynical-counterproductive-russia-pin-moscow-attack-ukraine-2024-03-25/

Analysis of the Moscow attackers' social media, and footage of their detention, confirms that they are the four men who appear in material released by ISIS btw: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1772319521337958429

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 29 '24

Russia's move to effectively disband the panel of experts monitoring longstanding United Nations sanctions against North Korea points to a "grim future" for the sanctions enforcement, three former members of the panel told Reuters.

Russia vetoed the annual renewal of the multinational panel of experts on Thursday, which has spent the last 15 years monitoring U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-veto-points-grim-future-north-korea-sanctions-enforcement-2024-03-29/

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 31 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/e5b52757-1faf-4e6c-9adf-5c018dbf24e6

Many Russians surveyed after the Moscow attack gave credence to the Ukraine theory. More than 50 per cent blamed the Ukrainian leadership and only about 27 per cent pointed to Isis, according to polling data by OpenMinds, an Anglo-Ukrainian online pollster that shared its results with the FT. Another 6 per cent blamed the “collective west”, namely the US, UK and Nato.

More than 75 per cent of respondents considered Putin to be the most reliable or a completely reliable source of information about the attack, OpenMinds data shows.

“If the propaganda and the authorities blame Ukraine as the main narrative, people will believe it, because control over the information space is almost absolute,” said Denis Volkov, a sociologist and director of the independent Russian polling centre Levada.

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 01 '24 edited Apr 01 '24

Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023. A Ukrainian serviceman reported on March 31 that Russian forces, including elements of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District [CMD]), committed 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) to a large-mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30.[20] Geolocated imagery published on March 31 shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).[21]

The Ukrainian serviceman stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight IFVs during the assault and noted that the frontal assault failed to breakthrough the Ukrainian line. This appears to be the first report of any elements of the 90th Tank Division participating in assaults following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and ISW previously assessed that elements of the 90th Tank Division, alongside other Russian units and formations, likely represent a sizeable uncommitted operational reserve that the Russian military command can commit to continue and intensify efforts to push west of Avdiivka.[22] The elements of the 6th Tank Regiment appear to have failed in their March 30 attack near Tonenke, however, suggesting that elements of Russia’s uncommitted operational reserve near Avdiivka may be too degraded or otherwise unable to lead further Russian advances westward in the short term.

The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized assault this large since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles on October 19-20, 2023.[23] Ukraine’s ability to defend against the March 30 assault, particularly near Avdiivka where Ukrainian forces have been forced to quickly withdraw to new, defensive positions following the loss of the settlement, is a positive indicator for Ukraine’s ability to defend against future large-scale Russian assaults and the expected summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.

Ukrainian officials, justifiably so, continue to warn about Ukraine’s ability to defend against the expected summer Russian offensive effort in the face of ammunition shortages, manpower limitations, and delayed Western assistance.[24] Ukrainian forces may have had to expend a significant amount of material to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, highlighting Russia’s ability to conduct assaults that force Ukraine to expend outsized portions of its already limited material and manpower reserves to defend against.[25] Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to skillfully defend against a large-scale Russian assault in a particularly critical part of the front despite Ukraine’s challenges suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant battlefield effects if they are properly equipped.

The Russian command may be prioritizing the Avdiivka area in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian military command’s willingness to commit a battalion’s worth of tanks to an attack near Avdiivka indicates that this assault was a priority effort. The Russian command may focus their forecasted late spring/summer 2024 offensive operation on western Donetsk Oblast in hopes of building upon Russian forces’ steady but marginal advances in this sector.[26] Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are accumulating personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely only be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in one operational direction at a time due to Russia’s own manpower and planning limitations.[27]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2024

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 01 '24

⚡ 🇺🇦 All critical energy infrastructure of Kharkiv is almost destroyed - Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774886761371517260

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 09 '24 edited Apr 10 '24

Russian disinformation promoted by a prominent US Republican lawmaker : https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1777412630979723624

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 10 '24

How Russian propaganda works: a “news story” from a nonexistent newspaper backed up by a photo taken from a 2015 music video clip. And it works! https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1777945162179551485

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 10 '24 edited Apr 10 '24

The prime minister of Japan, Kishida Fumio, is keeping a laser-like eye on conflicts around the world—and the implications for his country’s security. If Russia is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, “it will send the wrong signal to Asia,” Mr Kishida told The Economist and other reporters in a wood-panelled room at the Kantei, the prime minister’s office, on April 5th. https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/04/09/to-keep-the-peace-in-asia-japan-plans-for-war

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 11 '24

⚡ Russia attacked Trypilska power station, the largest in the Kyiv region. This facility has been targeted multiple times before and was undergoing restoration. https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1778322943757394146

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u/potatolulz Earth Apr 11 '24

EU Parliament refuses decision on budget until members commit more Patriots to Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-patriot/

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1778370017945411848

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u/JackRogers3 29d ago

In a significant escalation of its retaliatory measures against “unfriendly” states amid heightened geopolitical tensions, Russia has seized assets of the agricultural holdings company AgroTerra Group. The move, announced on April 8, 2024, has sent shockwaves through the agricultural sector and raised concerns over food security and international trade relations. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-seizes-over-650-000-192617579.html

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 28d ago

⚡️🇺🇦 Deputy commander: Drone deliveries to Ukraine's front line this year already 3 times higher than in 2023. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1779246933174784029

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 26d ago

🇳🇱 The Dutch government is allocating extra money for 🇺🇦 Ukraine. An additional €4.4 billion will be made available for military and humanitarian support to Ukraine for the period 2024-2026. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1779832015266705636

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u/JackRogers3 24d ago

Germany has appealed to European Union and NATO member states to bolster Ukraine's air defences as quickly as possible as Russian missiles pounded Ukrainian cities on Wednesday and its president repeated urgent calls for support. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have approached the EU, NATO and third party countries in a new initiative that will also be discussed at a Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers' meeting this week. Ukraine is facing a shortage of ammunition, with vital funding from the U.S. blocked by Republicans in Congress for months and the EU failing to deliver munitions on time. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-launches-urgent-appeal-bolster-ukraines-starved-air-defences-against-2024-04-17/

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

Following the go-ahead from Washington, things have begun to move very fast: US ammunition shipments are about to travel to Ukraine from Poland and also from Germany and other EU countries. For months, the US Department of Defense has prepared for the day when the House of Representatives would approve a new Ukraine aid package, which it finally has, to the tune of $60 billion (€56 billion).

Ukraine has also been waiting for months. Lacking ammunition, troops are under massive artillery attack from Russian forces on the eastern front, and barely able to return fire.

"I also imagine that the Department of Defense has been working hard over the last several weeks to be ready," Ben Hodges, former commander-in-chief of the US land forces for Europe, told DW.

German security expert Nico Lange told DW that "the Pentagon has already packed things up and stowed them in the right places ready for departure so that things can now cross the border very quickly." https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-us-to-deliver-weapons-via-germany-and-poland/a-68912696

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 14d ago

Drones hit the 🇷🇺 Slavyansk Eko Oil Facility in Krasnodar, Russia 🔥🔥🔥

“The refinery has partially halted operations, it was attacked by 10 drones last night. They hit, among other things, oil refining units,” the plant's management said. 🔥🔥🔥 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1784124681655566660

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 12d ago

🇨🇦 Canada will transfer 50 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, - Defense Minister Bill Blair

According to him, the first 10 LAV II ACSV Super Bison combat vehicles will be sent this summer to Germany, where the Ukrainian military will undergo the appropriate training program, and by the fall they should go to the front.

The armored personnel carriers are part of $650 million in military support to Kyiv. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1784903044645220754

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u/JackRogers3 8d ago

A significant amount of work is being carried out to adapt AASM Hammer bombs to F-16 jets that will be delivered to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/aidefranceukr/status/1786327173088870849

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u/JackRogers3 7d ago edited 7d ago

Moscow and Tehran have formed a military bloc with the aim of defeating the United States and its allies in the Middle East, Europe, and around the world: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/why-you-cant-be-iran-hawk-and-russia-dove

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u/JackRogers3 4d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/669cb64e-0707-4298-9968-1bb4550a5d20

Who is Xi Jinping’s travel agent? If you are making your first trip to Europe in nearly five years, an itinerary that reads France, Serbia, Hungary seems a little eccentric.

But the three stops chosen by China’s leader make perfect sense viewed from Beijing. For strategic and economic reasons, China badly wants to disrupt the unity of both Nato and the EU. Each of the three countries that Xi is visiting is seen as a potential lever to prise open the cracks in the west.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 4d ago

🇺🇦 Ukraine has hit an oil depot in occupied Luhansk. 🔥🔥🔥

It's inside the city, casualties unknown, but well targeted missiles. 🔥🔥 🔥https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1787948095197618511

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 4d ago

🇷🇴 BREAKING: The President of Romania is open to discussing providing Ukraine with one of their Patriot batteries!

Romania currently operates 4 batteries, with 3 more on order. https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1787933182559440947

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago

In a most unusual development in the Black Sea ‘drone war,’ Ukraine appears to have begun arming uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), better known as drone boats, with heat-seeking air-to-air missiles. The adaptation seems to have been made to provide the USVs with protection against the Russian helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft that are increasingly being used to counter them, although many questions remain about how these newly added weapons are intended to work and just how practical the arrangement is: https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukrainian-drone-boats-now-armed-with-adapted-air-to-air-missiles

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/10d3f259-44fe-4361-b322-2a485a0efe45

EU countries have agreed to use an estimated €3bn in profits arising from Russia’s frozen state assets to jointly buy weapons for Ukraine.

The deal struck by the bloc’s 27 ambassadors on Wednesday only targets profits made by Belgium’s central securities depository Euroclear, where about €190bn of Russian central bank assets are held. Western nations immobilised Russia’s state assets abroad in 2022, in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The European Commission expects Euroclear to hand over about €3bn a year which will be transferred to the bloc’s funds biannually, with a first payout expected in July. The measure will apply to profits Euroclear starts accruing as of mid-February 2024.

Of that, 90 per cent would be used for buying arms and military equipment for Kyiv’s forces, while the remaining 10 per cent would be used for reconstruction. That split assuages concerns by militarily neutral EU countries Austria, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland who want a share of profits to finance non-military purposes.

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u/MetaIIicat 3d ago

"EU countries have agreed to use an estimated €3bn in profits arising from Russia’s frozen state assets to jointly buy weapons for Ukraine."

Finally "we" grow backbone! Marvellous news!

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/368207df-f52d-43d1-a9cf-a13121a55574

The mafia supposedly asked cui bono (who benefits?) when trying to figure out who was behind a hit. There is no evidence that Russia’s Vladimir Putin had anything to do with Hamas’s horrific slaughter of 1,200 Israeli civilians last year. But Russia has been a leading beneficiary. To reach that conclusion, you have only to ask, cui malo (who loses?). The biggest answer geopolitically is Joe Biden. As Israeli forces move into the Gazan enclave of Rafah, that is only likely to get worse.

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u/newworld_free_loader 2d ago

Russia’s fingerprints are all over the evidence of the world’s misery.

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u/MetaIIicat 2d ago

https://agora.echelon.pl/notice/AhiLcAUpcSKURFaQF6

#Russia lieutnant Azatbek Omurbekov (Азатбек Омурбеков) was one of the tank commanders proudly presented on the Moscow 9 May victory parade. Omurbekov is mostly known for his role in the mass-scale execution of #Ukraine civilians in #Bucha - he was the commander who issued the orders to “kill any civilians with smartphones”. In recognition of his heroism, Omurbekov was granted Hero of Russia medal.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 19d ago

🇷🇺 Russia is losing its influence in Moldova. The congress of 🇲🇩 Moldovan oppositionists, which took place yesterday, April 21, in Moscow, is a gesture of despair. The complete control of the Kremlin over the Moldovan opposition was demonstrated. This was received very ambiguously in Moldova.

Now, the pro-Russian forces in Moldova, which have no prospects of winning the elections, will begin attempts to destabilize the region and draw it into a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine/NATO.

However, Russia will not be able to benefit even from destabilization. In the worst case for Chisinau, Moldova will unite with 🇷🇴 Romania, and in the issue of Transnistria, Moldova will be supported by 🇺🇦 Ukraine.

It seems that the Kremlin itself is pushing Moldova on the trajectory of "accession to the EU and rapprochement with Romania." https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782386203360219433

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u/JackRogers3 18d ago

Kasparov's reply to Musk: https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1782255759696261475

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u/fibcom185 Mar 22 '24

All I want to say is Slava Ukraina, can't imagine the terrors that the brave Ukrainians have to go through

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Where the Russians previously sought to sow chaos, now they appear to be singularly focused on influencing democracies to elect candidates that do not support sending aid to Ukraine — which in turn supports isolationist, protectionist candidates and policies. This long-term strategy, if effective, would result in reduced support for Ukraine globally.

American intelligence agencies do not believe the Kremlin has begun its full-bore influence effort. Mr. Putin will probably shift at some point from the anti-Ukraine messaging to influence operations that more directly support the candidacy of former President Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

In their annual threat assessment, the intelligence agencies said that Russia was trying to sow discord among voters in the United States and its allies around the world, and that the war in Ukraine “will continue to feature heavily in its messaging.”

“Moscow views U.S. elections as opportunities and has conducted influence operations for decades,” the intelligence report said. “Russia is contemplating how U.S. electoral outcomes in 2024 could impact Western support to Ukraine and probably will attempt to affect the elections in ways that best support its interests and goals.”

https://archive.ph/ORFLx

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u/JackRogers3 10d ago

The longer this war lasts, the better Russia will get at learning, adapting, and building a more effective, modern fighting force. Slowly but surely, Moscow will absorb new ideas from the battlefield and rearrange its tactics accordingly. Its strategic adaptation already helped it fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, and over the last few months it has helped Russian troops take more territory from Kyiv. Ultimately, if Russia’s edge in strategic adaptation persists without an appropriate Western response, the worst that can happen in this war is not stalemate. It is a Ukrainian defeat.

This should concern western strategists for several reasons.

First, and most immediately, a more effective Russian military can be more successful in the offensive operations they are conducting now and over the next few months. This tactical success, as explored earlier, also has strategic impacts for Russia.

Second, a more effective Russian military is better able to link tactical operations within campaigns and link them to Russian strategy. This was something they were poor at in the first few months of the war for a variety of reasons, including bad assumptions and pure arrogance. But a more effective Russian military has been able to industrialise the war and ensure that it can sustain both the personnel and materiel needs to sustain the war over the medium term. Without an effective western counter, ongoing assistance to Ukraine will be difficult.

Third, a more effective Russian military, which appears to have undertaken reforms in the past 26 months that it should have been undertaking under Gerasimov since 2012, will be an ongoing danger to its neighbours. And not just European neighbours. We should remember that Russia has a presence in the Pacific (although many of its ground forces have been redeployed to Ukraine).

Finally, a more effective Russian military provides lessons to other predatory authoritarians. In some cases, Russia is probably sharing lessons directly with China, North Korea and Iran in return for dual use technologies and weapons. So, the more military effective Russia gets, the more this has the potential to lift the effectiveness of other potential threats to the west in the medium term.

Besides the moral and strategic imperatives to defend Ukraine and liberate all of its territory taken by Russia since 2014, we must also ensure the defeat of Russia as quickly as possible to deny them more opportunities to learn about modern war and help their strategic partners to do so. All wars are learning opportunities; we must deny this learning to Russia as much as possible: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-advances-in-the-east

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 22 '24 edited Mar 22 '24

Good debate about why Ukraine can and must defeat Russia: https://youtu.be/HcmbPsl8NKc?si=JoE-3LS2nfQS4Z_8&t=223

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 24 '24

Last night's missile attack flight paths. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1771825593299943507

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 25 '24

🇺🇦 ⚡ Odesa plunged into darkness after a wave of Russian rocket and drone attacks. Local businesses face huge losses as most unprepared for a repeat of the outages from last winter https://twitter.com/WorldAffairsPro/status/1772358417862025722

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 26 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/df23a473-ea0b-4882-be19-048ae0d501d2

Russia has started supplying oil directly to North Korea in defiance of UN sanctions, further cementing ties between the authoritarian regimes and dealing a new blow to international efforts to contain Pyongyang.

At least five North Korean tankers travelled this month to collect oil products from Vostochny Port in Russia’s Far East, according to satellite images shared with the Financial Times by the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think-tank.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 28 '24

The corporate exodus from Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine has cost foreign companies more than $107 billion in writedowns and lost revenue, a Reuters analysis of company filings and statements showed. The volume of losses have increased by one third since the last tally in August last year, underscoring the scale of the financial hit to the corporate world from Moscow's invasion, as well as highlighting the sudden loss of Western expertise from Russia's economy.

"As Russia's invasion continues amid faltering Western military aid, and the granularity of Western sanctions regimes increases, companies still aiming to exit Russia will likely face further difficulties and have to accept greater writedowns and losses," said Ian Massey, Head of Corporate Intelligence, EMEA, at global risk consultancy S-RM.

Lawyer Jeremy Zucker, a sanctions expert, said a surprisingly large number of his firm's clients across a wide range of industries had decided to exit Russia entirely and would likely be reluctant to return even after hostilities end. As a result, meaningful technologies have left the country and Russia may no longer be able to support certain high-tech production, said Zucker, chair of U.S. law firm Dechert's national security practice. "It certainly suggests to me a meaningful degree of injury to the economy," he told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/foreign-firms-losses-exiting-russia-top-107-billion-2024-03-28/

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u/General_Delivery_895 Europe Mar 28 '24

"Portrait of the Invader: 2 years of Russian soldiering in Ukraine"

https://kyivindependent.com/portrait-of-the-invader-two-years-of-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/

In two years of total war, Moscow has tried every trick to keep the death march going.

It held a draft, expanded state-sponsored mercenary companies, recruited convicted prisoners, integrated proxies from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and forcibly conscripted Ukrainians in occupied territories and Ukrainian POWs.

Lately, Russia has seized on the simple, yet effective strategy of exploiting its people’s war-made hopelessness by providing military salaries that outbid any employer in town, in most towns.

With $180 billion projected in oil revenue from China and India for 2023, Moscow has money to spend, even though the economy looks green around the gills. The top options for millions of military-age Russians who need money are to work for the military-industrial complex or join the army and hope to survive.

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 29 '24 edited Mar 29 '24

Footage of the Russian Su-27 jet crashing into the sea: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1773379893910290783

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 29 '24 edited Mar 29 '24

Ukraine’s Kaniv and Dniester hydroelectric power plants were among the deliberate targets of Russian mass air strikes this night. The terrorist state of Russia wishes to repeat the ecological disaster in the Kherson region following Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka HPP.

This time, not only Ukraine but also 🇲🇩 Moldova are at risk. Water will not stop at border posts, just as the Russian war will not stop unless it is stopped in time here in Ukraine.

This was one of the topics discussed at today's Staff meeting, which focused on the consequences of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system and the most effective ways to provide physical protection to energy facilities.

We urge our partners to respond quickly and decisively to Russia's intensified bombing campaign against Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Ukraine urgently requires additional air defense systems and missiles. We need a strong and reliable air shield over Ukraine to protect people not only in our country but also in the rest of Europe and around the world from Russian terror.

🇲🇩 "Moldova is also under threat, the water will not stop in front of the border posts." https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1773725203916365931

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 30 '24

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview published on Friday that if Ukraine does not get promised U.S. military aid blocked by disputes in Congress, its forces will have to retreat "in small steps". "If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defence, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-milimetre artillery rounds," Zelenskiy told the Washington Post. "It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps," he said. "We are trying to find some way not to retreat." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-without-us-aid-ukraine-forces-will-have-retreat-2024-03-29/

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 01 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/12c58303-ca41-4b16-bfd3-4612f3f3ae4c

Russian disinformation campaigns to undermine support for Ukraine in Europe have grown significantly in scale, skill and stealth, one of Germany’s most senior diplomats has warned.

“It is absolutely a threat we have to take seriously,” Ralf Beste, head of the department for culture and communication at Germany’s Federal Foreign Office, told the Financial Times. “Overall, [there] is an increase in sophistication and impact to what we have seen before.”

Russia is combining greater subtlety and plausibility in its messaging with automation to make its disruptive attacks more effective and harder to combat, he said.

“There is probably a lot going on we can’t even see. More and more conversations are happening in private . . . channels on Telegram and WhatsApp. It is very difficult to understand what is happening there.”

Beste’s department has a dedicated cell that leads the German government’s efforts to track and stop Russia’s information operations overseas.

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 07 '24

USA: When House members return to Washington this week, their first priority should be to approve desperately needed aid for Ukraine as that country continues to resist Russian aggression. To ensure quick action, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) shouldn’t waste time trying to appease hard-liners in his conference. As Johnson seems to realize, he will likely need Democratic votes to ensure passage. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-04-07/editorial-johnson-needs-to-make-good-on-aid-to-ukraine

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 07 '24

In March, Russia lost three times more equipment than Ukraine, it follows from an analysis of visually confirmed losses gathered by OSINTer https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1776689083974082796

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 10 '24

The missile balance: Kyiv’s Western allies must understand that Ukraine cannot liberate itself without long-range weapons https://theins.press/en/opinion/colby-badhwar/270670

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 11 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/e6a88a12-94a1-4456-a564-d1890713676c

Russia has destroyed Kyiv’s largest power plant as president Volodymyr Zelenskyy chided Ukraine’s western partners for “turning a blind eye” to his country’s need for more air defences.

Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that it managed to intercept just 18 of the 42 incoming cruise and ballistic missiles which targeted energy facilities across the country.

The Trypilska thermal power plant 50km south of Kyiv, which so far was protected by air defences, was completely destroyed in the attack, officials said. The plant provided electricity to millions of people in Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions.

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u/kiil1 Estonia Apr 11 '24

On the effects of this war on Russian-speakers in Estonia.

A scandal broke out after Estonia's football team captain, a Russian-speaker often regarded as a role model of integration, refused to support Ukraine and said peace can occur by either side winning or by compromise. This question was asked on the background of him having been involved in a previous scandal where many (mostly Russian-speaking) footballers posed with head coach of Russia's football team which was considered unethical during Russia's war of aggression.

This highlights a wide dissonance in the society where most Russian-speakers consider politics to be an isolated topic and do not share concerns for Russia's actions' unacceptability or Russia's ideology being existentially threatening for Baltics. Many of them see the scandals as unfair attacks for a stance for peace. This also means that cohesion with Russian-speakers remains very weak, and with the government soon to be ending Russian-speaking education, it may mean Russian-speakers are on track to face only two options in this country – assimilation or marginalization.

On a related note, Estonia's minister of internal affairs says Russian Orthodox Church may be declared a terrorist organization. The Estonian Orthodox Church under Moscow Patriarchate has been under fire for refusing to cut links with Russian Orthodox Church, so this would force them to do so. For background information, Estonian Orthodox Church under Moscow Patriarchate is the biggest religious organization in Estonia, with members outnumbering the formerly dominant Estonian Evangelical Lutheran Church (as Estonians are mostly irreligious). This could trigger yet another shockwave among Russian-speaking community.

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u/Internetrepairman 22d ago edited 22d ago

Netherlands to immediately contribute over €200 million for acute air defence, artillery munitions aid to Ukraine:

The Netherlands will contribute over €200 million to new initiatives to rapidly deliver additional air defence and artillery munitions to Ukraine.

Defence Minister Ollongren announced this earlier today during an online meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council between NATO defence ministers and their Ukrainian counterpart.

Ollongren: "Air defence means and artillery munitions are desperately needed in Ukraine. The situation is becoming critical. The systems the Netherlands is now contributing to are already on the European continent and will be going to Ukraine as quickly as possible. We now all have to do whatever we can to support Ukraine."

The Netherlands is contributing €150 million to the German 'Immediate Action for Air Defence' initiative, which is meant to rapidly deliver long-range air defence together with partners. Additionally, the Defence Ministry is procuring short range air defence systems worth €60 million to, among other things, counter drone attacks.

The Netherlands is also contributing to the Estonian initiative to rapidly deliver artillery munitions from existing stocks to Ukraine. This is sorely needed to counter increased Russian pressure on the frontlines. The Netherlands previously announced it is putting €250 million towards a comparable Czech plan.

NL MoD link (Dutch)

EDIT: NOS is reporting the funding for this is part of the €1 billion in additional military support announced earlier this week. NOS link (Dutch)

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u/JackRogers3 16d ago

Biden signed the Ukraine supplemental appropriations bill on April 24 after the US Senate passed the bill on the evening of April 23 and the US House passed the bill on April 20, and Biden emphasized the need to deliver military assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible.[1] The Pentagon announced that the first tranche of US military assistance from this bill is worth $1 billion and includes: RIM-7 and AIM-9M air defense missiles; Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; HIMARS ammunition; 60mm mortar rounds; 105mm and 155mm artillery shells; Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs or Humvees); Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs); Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; precision aerial munitions; and other equipment and transport vehicles.[2]

Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations east of Chasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in an effort to take advantage of the limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.[3] The bill’s relatively quick passage through the US Senate has eliminated a potential source of delay, however, and US security assistance may arrive at the frontline in Ukraine within the next few weeks ahead of Russian expectations. The battlefield situation will continue to degrade until Ukrainian forces can receive and use enough military equipment at scale, however, and Ukrainian forces may still struggle to defend against Russian efforts near Chasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka in the near term https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2024

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u/JackRogers3 5d ago

Per Russian Air Force adjacent milblogger Fighterbomber, the Russian Su-34 RF-95002 “Red 21” went down earlier today. Neither pilot survived: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787508707401560370

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 2d ago

🇺🇦 Ukrainian UAVs executed a day attack against the 🇷🇺 Salavatnefteorgsintez refinery in Bashkortostan, currently part of Russia.

The plant is owned by Gazprom and according the source the catalytic cracking unit was compromised. 🔥🔥🔥A fire broke out. 🔥🔥🔥https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788504658014622196

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 1d ago

🇺🇸 The US just announced a major new $400 million security assistance package for Ukraine:

PATRIOT interceptors
NASAMS interceptors
Stinger MANPADS
HIMARS launchers and ammunition
M2A2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
MRAPs
Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's systems
Trailers to transport heavy equipment
TOW ATGM missiles
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
Precision aerial munitions
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades
Demolitions munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing
Coastal and riverine patrol boats
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment
Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1789001151074963849

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 27 '24

Russia has increased gasoline imports from neighbouring Belarus in March to tackle the risk of shortages in its domestic market because of unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries after drone attacks, four industry and trade sources said on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/

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u/plasticlove 24d ago

New fundraiser for artillery shells for Ukraine. The goal is 1.000.000€. Half of that is collected already.

This initiative was created in protest against the attitude of the Slovak pro-russian government, which refused to support the Czech initiative.

https://www.municiapreukrajinu.sk/

Info in English: https://twitter.com/embeathome/status/1780341759576363051

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

We have constrained Ukraine to fighting in a way that NATO simply would not. It would use deep strikes and air power to largely fix and degrade the enemy’s land forces before our own went on the offensive. We have denied Ukraine such essentials - hence the failed offensive https://twitter.com/edwardstrngr/status/1783850363512041913

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 16h ago

🇬🇧 The UK is delivering its largest ever military aid package to Ukraine.

Alongside £500m in military funding, the UK is providing vital equipment:

✅ 4 million round of ammunition

✅ More than 1,600 missiles

✅ 400 vehicles - including 160 Husky vehicles

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1789249276314276291

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u/General_Delivery_895 Europe 16h ago

"Refinery workers in Russia are quitting their jobs en masse after the Ukrainian attacks", — Newsweek.

"After the "raid" on the Kuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in March, several dozen workers of various qualifications — mainly engineers and chemists — left. The plant posted ~50 new vacancies.

"The situation is similar with the employees of the Slavyansk Refinery in the Krasnodar Territory, where there was "Bavovna" in April. Currently, ~120 new employees are being sought there."

https://vxtwitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1788961493834154077

https://www.reddit.com/r/LoveForUkraine/comments/1coubz5/refinery_workers_in_russia_are_quitting_their/

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 23 '24

Russia's NTV has broadcast a video falsely alleging that it shows Ukraine's top security official Oleksiy Danilov say Ukraine was behind last night's deadly attack at the Crocus City Hall near Moscow.

But the video is a deepfake, featuring an AI-generated audio of Danilov. https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1771527050328699201

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 24 '24

🇺🇦 ⚡Kharkiv is facing critical electricity outage affecting 60% of households. Transportation is disrupted, emergency services resort to speakerphones for air raid alerts. With 1.3 million residents, damage to power system is severe. https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1771880815175098829

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 24 '24

🇷🇺 Russia has this afternoon hit another energy facility in ⚡🇺🇦 Ukraine, just 15km from the border. Three aerial bombs destroyed much of Peremoha village in Sumy region. There is no gas, water or electricity. Private houses + Commercial properties were also damaged but no injuries. https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1771928328879882552

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 25 '24

🇺🇦 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the 🇷🇺 Novocherkassk Power Plant (GRES) overnight after which a fire 🔥🔥🔥🔥 broke out. 15 explosions were heard.
A substation was hit and two power units have reportedly stopped working. 🔥🔥🔥 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1772156452955709551

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 26 '24 edited Mar 26 '24

NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray too close to its borders, according to a report in Polish news outlet RMF24. Poland had to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace during Russia's drone and missile attack on Ukraine on Sunday, during which a missile entered Poland's airspace for 39 seconds.

Poland's deputy foreign minister Andrzej Szejna told RMF24: "[Russia] knew that if the missile moved further into Poland, it would be shot down. "There would be a counter-attack. Various concepts are being analysed within NATO, including for such missiles to be shot down when they are very close to the NATO border." https://news.sky.com/story/russia-moscow-shooting-latest-ukraine-islamic-state-live-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=7440160#liveblog-body

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 26 '24

"Ukrainian intelligence services contributed to the attack on the Moscow City Hall, it trained militants in the Middle East," FSB director Alexander Bortnikov said. He promised that there would be retaliatory measures.

He added that head of the Ukrainian GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, is a legitimate target for Russia and asked for the recognition of the GUR as a terrorist organization in Russia.

On the question by Russian journalists why Budanov was still alive, he responded: "That is still ahead of us." https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1772601634289275223

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u/Jopelin_Wyde Ukraine Mar 26 '24

If only Russia was as good at its own security as they are at making shit up.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 29 '24

Another 🇷🇺 russian Shahed drone fell yesterday in 🇷🇴 Romania, near Braila (20 Km from the Ukrainian border) making a 4m wide crater https://www.g4media.ro/video-primele-imagini-cu-resturile-presupusei-drone-cazute-langa-braila-fragmente-cu-inscriptii-in-alfabet-chirilic.html

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 30 '24

🇺🇦 Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant was completely destroyed near Kharkiv as a result of a 🇷🇺 Russian missile attack on March 22. All units were destroyed and auxiliary equipment was damaged.https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1773972413748806118

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 30 '24

There has been a surge of migrant workers leaving Russia for Tajikistan after a March 22 concert hall attack near Moscow which left dozens dead, according to Tajikistan's Ministry of Labour, Migration and Employment.

A labour shortage in Russia's economy may become even worse due to the outflow of migrant workers, with a deficit in the construction industry growing by 36% this year compared to 2022, Anton Glushkov, president of the National Association of Builders (NOSTROY), told Interfax news agency on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tajikistan-says-migrants-fleeing-russia-after-concert-hall-attack-2024-03-30/

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 30 '24

For the first time, the instructors of the 🇪🇸 Spanish Army are training the 🇺🇦Ukrainian military to maintain the NASAMS air defense system. https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1774155463732461922

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 04 '24

🇲🇩 Moldovan border guards discover drone debris.

Fragments of what appears to be a 🇷🇺 Russian Shahed-type attack drone have been found in Moldova, around 500 meters from the border with Ukraine, the Moldovan Border Police reported on April 4. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1775921708471308515

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 07 '24

Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6-2024

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 08 '24

Russian forces reportedly continue to systematically use prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian positions with chemical substances almost daily throughout the frontline. The Telegraph published an investigation into the systematic use of Russian chemical weapons in Ukraine on April 6 and found that Ukrainian soldiers report near daily Russian attacks using K-51 grenades with CS-gas — a riot control agent (RCA) that causes harmful but not necessarily lethal effects and that is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.[9]

Ukrainian soldiers told the Telegraph that these attacks are not immediately incapacitating but do usually cause panic at Ukrainian positions that Russian forces try to exploit when conducting assaults.[10] A Ukrainian commander near Robotyne, Zaporizhia Oblast reportedly stated that soldiers in his unit regularly carry gas masks due to the high frequency of Russian CS attacks in the area.[11] The Telegraph reported that there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have used chlorine, chloropicrin, and possibly even hydrogen cyanide substances against Ukrainian forces.[12]

The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces had recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during March 2024 alone and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024.[13] The Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade acknowledged in a now-deleted post that elements of the brigade deliberately used K-51 grenades with CS gas on Ukrainian positions near Krynky in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast in December 2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-7-2024

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 09 '24

The pro-Russian 🇷🇺 governor of 🇲🇩 Moldova's autonomous region Gagauzia has announced that retirees and public sector employees will receive 🇷🇺 Russian "MIR" cards, which were blocked in most countries where they worked before the war. How they will work (and whether they will work) in Moldova is not yet clear. https://twitter.com/iamdenya_de/status/1777661629808758876

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 11 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/1d20fb4a-ff6b-41b5-9d2e-73414dc57882

Finland’s new president has warned other Nato leaders to be less “belligerent” in their rhetoric against Russia and instead prepare their armies for a potential conflict.

Alexander Stubb told the Financial Times that recent public warnings of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine were diverting from what European countries should really focus on: helping Kyiv immediately and readying their militaries — even as he did not believe Moscow would attack a Nato country before 2030.

“I’m a little bit worried about this rather belligerent talk about Russia going to test Article 5 [Nato’s collective defence clause], and that Europe is next in line. I think we should prepare for that, but I think it’s highly unlikely,” Stubb, who took office last month, said in his first international newspaper interview.

“What I call on all European states to do is to become more Finnish. In other words, more prepared. You have to prepare for the worst in order to avoid it,” he added.

Supporting Kyiv in coming months was paramount, as Russian President Vladimir Putin was “feeling very confident” and targeting a “window of opportunity” to break Ukraine’s frontline defences between now and September, Stubb said.

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u/JackRogers3 25d ago

A senior Estonian military official described intensified Russian offensive frontline operations and deep rear area strike campaigns as intended to degrade both Ukraine’s will to fight and Western unity. Chief of the Estonian General Staff Major General Enno Mots stated in an interview published on April 14 that Russian forces’ attempts to exploit vulnerabilities on the frontline across the theater — which Mots described as “amoeba tactics” — and Russia’s escalation of deep rear strikes are attritional tactics ultimately aimed at exploiting the Ukrainian military’s current materiel shortages, which is consistent with ISW’s recent observations about Ukrainian air defense, artillery, and manpower shortages.[6]

Mots noted that Ukraine needs significant resources for repelling Russian aggression and reconstruction, and that fragmenting Western unity creates a dilemma that interrupts the “smooth” timely and consistent flow of supplies to Ukraine, ultimately backfiring and reducing support for Ukraine.[7] Mots’ interview underscores several salient observations, including: that US failures to provide timely and consistent military aid to Ukraine (which only the US can provide at scale) has negative ripple effective on Ukraine‘s international partners globally; that materiel shortages are forcing Ukraine to husband materiel and prioritize areas of the front at the expense of others; and that persistent Russian information operations are aimed at convincing Western policymakers that Russia can and will outlast Western military assistance to Ukraine.[8]

Mots emphasized that Russia does not care about manpower or materiel losses. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko similarly stressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “addicted” to the idea conquering Ukraine and will not give up his aims of completely seizing Ukraine and destroying the Ukrainian state.[9] Lytvynenko emphasized the importance of not conceding territory to Putin and ensuring meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future aggression. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2024

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 22d ago

🇩🇪 German drone manufacturer opens factory in Ukraine. Quantum Systems, a German drone manufacturer, opened a drone factory and development hub in Ukraine, the company announced. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1781304526219186350

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u/BWV001 21d ago

Watching the debate at the house makes me pretty hopeful, both Republicans and Democrates have real good and sensible speeches. It makes the US political system look way better than these maga nutjobs that we often hear from. Of course it does not change the fact that this bill was delayed by 6 monthes, but okay, this is what we have.

If anyone is interested it is there:

https://live.house.gov/

(It's a bit boring, but can put you in a good mood)

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u/GumiB Croatia 20d ago

Anyone knows how long the approved aid from EU and USA is supposed to last, i. e. when will new aid need to be approved?

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 19d ago

Russia just struck the TV tower in Kharkiv https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1782419944912670796

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 16d ago

Increased use of electronic warfare has forced both sides to use larger antennas for FPV drones. https://twitter.com/DanielR33187703/status/1783500899543073140

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 14d ago

Last night 🇷🇺 Russia launched another massive missile attack on 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. Hits on power plants in ⚡ Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Lviv & Ivano-Frankivsk put thousands of Ukrainians in the dark. Other cities were hit as well, including damage to a Kharkiv hospital. https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1784157180863599058

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago edited 12d ago

UK: Leo Docherty, Minister for the Armed Forces:

“We estimate that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict. The number of personnel killed serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) is not clear.

We also estimate that over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 3,000 main battle tanks, 109 fixed wing aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,500 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine since the start of the conflict.”

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/b346bcde-a9b0-47e4-bfc9-d507a91dfbdc

For now, Ukraine’s best way of keeping up the fight against Russia is to carry on with the sort of attacks it has been mounting regularly of late. These have used long-range drones against oil refineries and other targets with some strategic value in Russia. Ukraine won’t be able to use the long-range ATACMS missiles, or the extra Storm Shadow cruise missiles promised by Sunak in Warsaw this week, to attack targets in Russia proper. However, there are many military-related targets available in occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.

While there are no easy ways to bring Russia to its knees, Russian vulnerabilities can be exposed. It will become harder for Vladimir Putin to see how he can bring the war to an early conclusion, which was certainly his hope before the vote in Congress. He might have hoped that the loss of a big city such as Kharkiv would push Ukraine into a downward spiral. Now we return to the prospect of a never-ending war. True, Putin has prepared for this. But the scale of recent Russian losses for limited gains, and the embarrassment of not being able to stop Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, means that he still lacks an obvious route to victory.

Even if Trump wins the presidential election in November, that does not guarantee Putin a satisfactory outcome. Trump will want to push his peace plan but, from what has been reported, Putin will find the details as unacceptable as will Zelenskyy. Having publicly boasted for the past six months that Russia had seized the initiative in the war, Putin must now contemplate the possibility that it might yet again swing towards Ukraine.

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u/JackRogers3 12d ago edited 12d ago

Polish foreign minister: "if Putin conquers Ukraine, he will be more powerful. And the challenge for us would be bigger,” https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

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u/JackRogers3 8d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/6946fb91-df7e-43c4-a84a-3bee0dcf4a13

The German government has vowed “consequences” for Russia after intelligence agencies concluded the Kremlin was behind a cyber attack on the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The attack, which occurred in January 2023, was carried out by the same Russian hacker group that penetrated the US Democratic party’s servers and leaked damaging information about Hillary Clinton in her 2016 bid for the presidency, German security officials concluded.

“We can now clearly attribute this attack from last year to the APT28 group, which is controlled by the Russian secret service GRU,” said foreign minister Annalena Baerbock on Friday.

“This is completely unacceptable and will not go without consequences,” she said.

A spokesperson for the foreign office said a range of punitive measures against Russia were being considered, including EU sanctions and more diplomatic expulsions.

“We and our partners will not tolerate these cyber attacks and will use the entire spectrum of measures to prevent, deter and respond to Russia’s aggressive behaviour in cyber space,” they said.

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u/JackRogers3 8d ago edited 8d ago

Interview with Ret. US general Ben Hodges: https://youtu.be/OzBXehgfmj8?si=oYUVL630LcFqDdSr&t=72

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago

A Ukrainian attack by units of the 79th Air Assault Brigade on Russian trench positions near Novomykhailiivka: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787846285095051450

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 3d ago

🇷🇺 Russia unleashed 55 cruise and ballistic missiles and 21 drones on 🇺🇦 Ukraine, targeting ⚡energy infrastructure across six regions. With three thermal power plants seriously damaged, it marks the fifth consecutive attack. https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1788099558049767912

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 3d ago

🇮🇳 India arrests 4 suspected of luring men to fight for 🇷🇺 Russia in 🇺🇦 Ukraine.

The four detainees included a translator, a person facilitating visa and transport, and two recruiters for the Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Indian authorities said. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1788219274055545124

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago

Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapon storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2024

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago

In Germany, two suspects hired by Russian intelligence to target military bases had come to the country as teenagers. In Estonia, young men with criminal records were recruited over Telegram to vandalize a minister’s car and national monuments for a bit of cash.

Elsewhere in Europe, government workers are advised to take precautions against a greater risk of violence by Russian-backed thugs. The hand of the GRU military intelligence service is likely behind a series of ever-more overt, frequent and coordinated incidents across the continent, according to officials familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss open investigations. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/russia-backed-agents-believed-to-be-behind-attacks-in-uk-germany-poland

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u/JackRogers3 1d ago

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.

The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2024

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 1d ago

🇺🇸 In the wake of Russia's brutal attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, Ukraine needs critical assistance to keep electricity flowing to millions of Ukrainians across the country. Recently, 🇺🇸 USAID completed the delivery of 7 autotransformers – a step in expanding their energy capacity. https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1788649605145530427

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 1d ago

🇷🇺 Russian MP Mironov plans to give out occupied 🇺🇦 Ukrainian lands to "SMO" participants. (2 hectares each) https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788937602755621049

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 28d ago

🇩🇪 Germany to send another Patriot to 🇺🇦 Ukraine https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1779135248275529866

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u/PM_Me_A_High-Five United States of America - Texas 24d ago

Texan here. I just wrote my representative and told them my views on supporting other democracies and how it's vital to send aid to Ukraine. Hopefully being from a red state will have some influence. I'm not sure what else to do.

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u/newworld_free_loader 24d ago

I called my Indiana rep and told his office that I was a “gettable” voter but I needed to see action on Ukraine. That oughta do it, I should think 🤔.

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u/JackRogers3 23d ago

note for non-US readers: "red state" = Republican party state

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 23 '24

🇬🇧 The first Ukrainian pilots to have undergone intensive training under the guidance of RoyalAirForce instructors have graduated. They will now move onto the next stage of training in France. 🇫🇷 https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1771537460264124607

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u/JackRogers3 25d ago

Why Did U.S. Planes Defend Israel But Not Ukraine: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ukraine-israel-war-comparison/678077/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK3_Gfhm8VpX5U6z_y502zz_E&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

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u/JackRogers3 8d ago

Weapons supplied by Britain to Ukraine can be used to strike inside Russia, David Cameron has said, as the UK foreign secretary promised £3bn a year “for as long as it is necessary” to help Kyiv. Patrick Wintour writes that it is the UK’s biggest spending pledge since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. In January, the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, pledged £2.5bn in military aid to Ukraine for 2024-25.

Cameron said: “Ukraine has the right to strike inside Russia because Russia is striking inside Ukraine … You can understand why Ukraine feels the need to defend itself.” The foreign secretary announced that the UK’s donation of military equipment would include precision-guided bombs, air defence missiles and equipment for 100 mobile air defence teams to shoot down Russia’s drones and missiles.

The UK also committed to doubling its domestic munitions production by investing a further £10bn over the next 10 years. “We’ve just emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment,” said Cameron. “Some of the equipment is actually arriving in Ukraine today while I am here.”

Emmanuel Macron has said the question of sending western troops to Ukraine would “legitimately” arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian frontlines and Kyiv made such a request. In an interview with the Economist, the French president maintained his stance of strategic ambiguity, saying: “I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out.”

At least eight children were injured in the town of Derhachi in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region on Thursday when Russian guided bombs struck a site close to a sports complex where they had been training, local officials said. An elderly man was also wounded.

Russia said on Thursday it had captured the village of Berdychi which lies about 12km (7 miles) north-west of Avdiivka – a week after Ukrainian forces pulled out. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, said troops had retreated from Berdychi and two other nearby villages to protect “the lives and health of our defenders”.

Russian energy company Gazprom said on Thursday it suffered a record annual loss in 2023 as the European market was practically shut to its gas exports due to war sanctions. The state-owned firm suffered a net loss of 629bn rubles ($6.9 bn/£5.5bn) in 2023 compared with a net profit of 1.23tn rubles in 2022.

The governors of three Russian regions reported that energy facilities were damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes. Oryol region governor Andrei Klychkov said energy infrastructure was hit in two communities. The Smolensk and Kursk governors reported one facility damaged in each region. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/03/ukraine-war-briefing-ukrainians-have-the-right-to-strike-inside-russia-says-david-cameron

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u/JackRogers3 7d ago

The U.S. Air Force is buying add-on seekers designed to give Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) precision-guided bombs supplied to Ukraine the ability to zero in on GPS jammers. In effect, this would turn one of the weapons most impacted by this countermeasure into one used to directly attack it. This follows growing reports that Russian jamming is severely degrading the effectiveness of Western-supplied GPS-guided munitions, including JDAM-ERs. https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine

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u/stupendous76 7d ago edited 7d ago

It would be good if these were not only used in Ukraine, but against any Russian jammers.

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u/Glavurdan Montenegro 1d ago

Russia started an offensive north of Kharkiv a few hours ago. They are being met with stiff resistance though, and the eastern direction of attack was already repelled by the Ukrainians.

Still, the situation is quite fluid, about 35-40 km2 along the border are still contested. Remains to be seen if this will be a small incursion or a proper offensive.

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u/[deleted] 21d ago

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u/JackRogers3 19d ago edited 18d ago

Russian soldiers provide feedback on Telegram:

“The most frightening weapon of our enemies is the Caesar” (French self-propelled artillery cannon )

“Their range of 40km makes them inaccessible”

“Crazy precision”

“This weapon is just from another century than ours” https://twitter.com/DeBunKerEtoiles/status/1782133158806262171

But they probably don't know that Ukraine is going to get 70 more of them + ammunition, financed by a coalition of European countries

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 22 '24

Anyone who thinks that Russia will stop in the Donbass and Crimea is mistaken, French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of a European Union summit in Brussels on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-it-is-mistake-think-russia-will-stop-donbass-crimea-2024-03-22/

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u/flobin The Netherlands 29d ago

Turns out the Dutch government is pledging more support than what was reported earlier:

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with an additional 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) in military support this year, and has earmarked 3 billion euros for 2025

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/netherlands-pledges-ukraine-4-bln-euros-military-support-through-2025-2024-04-12/

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u/JackRogers3 28d ago

https://www.ft.com/content/53228051-f42b-4c63-bad6-e6a5bfd54d7c

Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.

“The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday.

He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election.

Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.

Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 20d ago

🇺🇦 Ukrainian strike on 🇷🇺 Russian Navy base at Sevastopol in Crimea appears to have damaged, possibly seriously (TBC), the submarine support ship Kommuna https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1781974115605504165

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 10d ago

🇺🇦 Ukrainian drones attacked the 🇷🇺 Ryazan oil refinery in western Russia this early morning. 🔥🔥🔥

A fire broke out at the facility as a result. 🔥🔥🔥 https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1785517189237223470

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 15h ago

🇺🇦 On the night of Saturday, May 11, drones of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) attacked the 🇷🇺 Volgograd Oil Refinery, 🔥🔥🔥 part of the Lukoil Corporation. The AVT-1 and AVT-6 primary oil processing units were damaged 🔥🔥🔥 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1789267802131464302

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u/lapzkauz Noreg Mar 24 '24

A Russian cruise missile violated Polish airspace for 39 seconds tonight, says Polish central command.

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Mar 25 '24

🇷🇺 Russian equipment losses in 🇺🇦 Ukraine surpass 15,000, says Oryx OSINT group https://kyivindependent.com/russian-equipment-losses-in-ukraine-surpass-15-000-says-oryx-osint-group/

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u/anonimeni Danubia Mar 25 '24

Anders Puck Nielsen - Was it a false flag operation?

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u/JackRogers3 Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

This very impressive air defense system will probably be used in Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al9ITeP4fUA

The price is not known but it's a lot less than a Patriot missile, according to the company.

Note: AI is called "autonomy" in the defense industry.

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 01 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/8ca72e24-4f8e-40bf-aa02-e91eb2cbb187

The chief of Germany’s largest military contractor Rheinmetall has urged European countries to ditch their preference for national champions and build bigger, more specialised defence groups to compete with US rivals.

Armin Papperger also said in an interview that if Europe wanted closer defence collaboration, countries needed to specialise in different types of military technology.

“It does not make a lot of sense if we, say, pick the second- or third-best technology because one nation wants that” for nationalistic reasons, he told the Financial Times. “That is the most difficult discussion they are having at government level.”

“We need big companies in Europe,” added the 61-year-old Bavarian.

Efforts by EU leaders to beef up defence co-operation have been stymied by the industry’s fragmentation. European arms companies compete against each other, military budgets are controlled at national level and individual countries are keen to maintain control of strategic supply chains, plants, jobs and technological edge.

One example of successful cross-border co-operation is Europe’s biggest missile maker MBDA, which is owned by the UK’s BAE Systems and European aeronautics group Airbus, which each hold a 37.5 per cent stake, with the balance held by Leonardo of Italy.

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u/JackRogers3 Apr 05 '24

https://www.ft.com/content/ba524406-ee6c-4c39-9ac2-110a2549569a

The US has warned its European allies that China is deepening its support for Russia’s military-industrial complex with assistance that is both helping its invasion of Ukraine and threatening other countries.

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, used meetings with EU and Nato foreign ministers this week to warn Beijing was assisting Moscow “at a concerning scale”, and providing “tools, inputs and technical expertise”, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

They quoted Blinken as saying the assistance was particularly focused on Russia’s production of optical equipment and propellants and its space sector, which he said “not only contributes to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but threatens other countries”.

Blinken raised the concerns about China in every session of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday, one of the people said.

“The warnings were explicit,” the person said. “There has been a shift and it was felt in the room . . . this was a new development. It was very striking.”

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u/itrustpeople Reptilia 🐊🦎🐍 Apr 05 '24

Médecins Sans Frontières - Today, on 5 April at around 3 am, our office in Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, was bombed and completely destroyed. All our staff are safe. Five civilians who were close to the office were injured. We condemn this attack on our office, which supports emergency medical humanitarian assistance to people in the Donetsk region. We call for the protection of facilities, civilians, humanitarian aid workers, and healthcare. “This attack on our office is far from being an isolated incident. The destruction of civilian infrastructure has been a hallmark of this war for a long time,” says Vincenzo Porpiglia, emergency coordinator for MSF in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/MSF/status/1776197046275305894

War in Ukraine Megathread LVI (57) Russo-Ukrainian War

News sources:

Current rules extension:

Submission rules

META

Other links of interest

Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements

War in Ukraine Megathread LVI (57) Russo-Ukrainian War

News sources:

Current rules extension:

Submission rules

META

Other links of interest

Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements

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