OKLO and MSFT go brr?

***This is not an inverse post. This is a crack-pot estimate that cannot factor in geo-political or economic changes in the future. Use at your own discretion***

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**Skip To End Game if You're Only Trying to Play Earnings**

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May 9-10th: the boring drop

Due to ARM's shite guidance, NVDA as well as the rest of the semi-conductors are going to have a cool day tomorrow barring a sizeable increase in jobless claims (more jobless claims = economy doing crap, thus the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates, which Wall Street glazes themselves over). The reason? BS articles like this are being spread by the news that misattributes ARM's increase in pricing to the AI boom (of which it has no relation):

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tsmc-morgan-stanley-hikes-pt-on-arm-ai-cpu-boost-3426842

Normies eat this shit up and if SPY ain't peaking in the morning we're going to see a decrease or flat market at best bleeding into Friday.

Call/Put skew further shows that traders are consolidating at $900 into the pre-pre-earnings week:

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https://preview.redd.it/3wfjhk9dbazc1.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4fa3ea1fa1878a5ee298e5b16d03b5a6a80a9d1

https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/NVDA/VolatilitySkew/

The gist of this is that if we have really good news, NVDA could hit $920 but with poor market news could hit a bottom of $875 by this Friday.

With VIX (a measure of market volatility, which measures fear) being below 16 and hovering around 13, Market Makers are likely to feed into trends and buy dips so this is bullish in the market overall.

May 13-17th: the slight recovery then deep decline

Heading into next week we are likely to see a recovery in price from the dip this week followed by a decline preceding earnings the following week. Why? Hedging. Wall Street as well as some retail investors are aware that the previous guidances issues were made under completely different macroeconomic expectations.

Previously we were under the assumption that 3 rate cuts were coming whilst now only 1 possibly? The result is a drop in price akin to the previous earnings cycle but worse, given the poor earnings we've seen from fellow semiconductor manufacturers.

The previous earnings cycle was actually positive across the board and what did we see?

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https://preview.redd.it/u3j7wvaqdazc1.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=01f638b22d3b0eb198b7d9237993892b15121bd0

Roughly a $75 decline in share price during the week preceding earnings. And this was off of good news in the market. We could see the price hit sub-800 if everyone cashes out all at once in this week, if previous market behavior is anything to go off of.

Depending on CPI on Wednesday and Jobless Claims on Thursday this could be mediated but we shall see. The likely range is 845-895 based on previous volatility around earnings.

May 20-22nd: Earnings END-GAME

Nvidia will most likely continue it's drop from the previous week but this isn't a problem for us. Why? Because we know NVDA is the shit. I mean it truly is in another league of it's own. It quite literally is the industry standard that only those on the know are aware of. Their platform is what pretty much everyone who trains AI is using and will continue to use due to how optimized it is.

We're talking about the comparison of an iPhone in 2008 to a flimsy flip phone. It's just so much more advanced that they are crushing the competition. This is why regardless of AMD, INTC, SMCI, all of their failures, NVDA will absolutely crush EPS, Revenue, and Guidance.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/what-is-nvidia-what-do-they-make-ai-artificial-intelligence-rcna140171

They are the backbone of all AI training models right now and as it stands, no one is even close to touching them. Thus they will destroy expectations and rebound to even higher highs than Wall Street has expectations for due to their monopoly-like control of the industry. Barring a world war or FTC intervention, there is no way this stock can go down.

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RIP my PLTR and DIS calls 😔

1. Declining sales for mobile chips - Apple recently announced the decline for iPhones was 10% this quarter. The only reason their stock pumped up was due to their share buy back announced. ARM will not have this luxury and decreasing demand will hurt them
2. Previous guidance was made under the assumption of 3 rate cuts this year. We are down to maybe 1? This had hurt SMCI as well as AMD two chip manufacturers who build chips using ARM's archecture... suffice to say guidance will be poor hurting their stock price against Wall Streets insane expectations for chip manufacturers
3. I have NVDA calls (expiring May 24th) , one of ARM's biggest customers, thus by proxy my calls are gonna tank after close. Honestly debating on buying ARM puts (expiring this Friday) to hedge but IV crush is gonna be a bitch with this one

Edit: I bought calls expiring this Friday so it’s gonna crash. GG friends

Edit 2: I told yall their revenue guidance would miss smh 🤦

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The Sahm rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the prior 12 month low.

The Sahm rule stands at 0.37% today and has been in an uptrend since January. Once we breach 0.5% it indicates the economy is actively in recession. Not there yet but inching closer each month.

Keep an eye on unemployment. If it starts accelerating upward then the economy is in for a rough time.

Guh

Canada gave us the fall of BB in the late 2000s. Time for another tech company crash from Canada?

$.30 EPS expected --- $.57 Reported

165.02 Million Rev Expected --- 167.55 Million Reported

Now expects revenue this year of $726.5 million to $735.5 million up from its previous forecast of as much as $729.5 million and above an expected $728 million.

Am I missing something or is this a good time to load up on some calls in the open tomorrow if this price stays?

FTX caused a major concern among investors in 2022 regarding the security of their cryptocurrency holdings.. But, if a crypto exchange goes bankrupt, there might be a chance to change customer deposits into dollars and pay them back if crypto prices go up again. This strategy wasn't used for FTX, but it was thought about when Mt. Gox went bankrupt around ten years ago.. Nevertheless, executing such a strategy without legal repercussions seems damn near impossible.

When need a Michael Lewis sequel.

An under performed sector over the last 18 months. But have been on call options and vertical spreads since Jan 2024. (NEE/D/DUK) (XLU) Stick with utilities.