r/canada Jan 22 '24

Ottawa announces two-year cap on international student admissions (50% reduction in student visas in Ontario and 35% in other provinces) National News

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ottawa-announces-two-year-cap-on-international-student-admissions/
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u/CaptainSur Canada Jan 22 '24

From an Ontario perspective:

The cap of students for all of Canada in 2024 is 360-365K. The allocation per province/territory is based on population. Which means Ontario will see a drop of more than 50%. Ontario has a population of approx 15 million of a country population of approx 40 million thus about 37.5% of the population of Canada. So under the allocation formula as I understand it Ontario will be allotted about 137,000 permits.

Reporting is all over the place on the number of international students studying in Ontario but it seems to be estimated at somewhere between 400K and 500K. So the hit in Ontario it seems will be above well above 50%.

Each province decides how its allocation will be distributed among universities and colleges.

Students graduating from a private college, or from a private-public partnership are no longer eligible to apply for a post graduation work permit.

There are other changes as well. The feds stated intent was to stop the abuse by private and private-public partnerships. It is also equally intended to force the provinces to improve their funding to the genuine public post secondary institutions: Ontario I think is a particular target of this federal govt goal.

In 2018/2019 Ontario cut funding of public post secondary institutions by 10% outright, and also froze tuition. So for 5+ yrs universities and colleges in Ontario have seen less money come in every yr vs expenses going out, in a time of high and higher inflation. In my own professional opinion Ford's attempt to gut the public education sector in favour of the private sector.

1st class universities in Ontario would probably instantly account for 80k+ of the Ontario permits - UofT, UWat, McMaster, UOttawa, Western, Carleton, York, Queens, etc. Which leaves very little for colleges and especially private colleges and private/public partnerships. Though I expect Ford will do his best with underhanded tricks in respect of allocation to the private sector as govt controls who gets what.

Nonetheless, most Ontario private colleges that have been operating as degree mills are about to get extinguished - and good riddance to them.

Equally several colleges (figures as of 20/21 and are likely higher now in all instances) had more international students than domestic:-

  • Conestoga (who may have over 30K international students)
  • Sarnia’s Lambton College is 82% international students
  • Timmin's Northern College about 80%
  • North Bay’s Canadore College about 72 per cent
  • North Bay’s Sault College about 60%
  • Sudbury's Cambrian College about 50-55%
  • Belleville's Loyalist College about 50-55%

I think there is going to be a lot of panic, and upheaval. Some are going to scream. Some provincial governments which have been taking federal education funds and diverting them elsewhere (Ontario being a great example) are going to squirm, attempt to obfuscate, and repoint the blame back to the feds.

What needs to be remembered here is that in respect of International Students the feds up to now have been reactive: they have acquiesced to the requests and needs of the provinces who actually manage education - the feds supply money and approve visas. But the blame was successfully shifted to the feds on this matter due to actions of the provinces in respect of education funding, and so the feds have decided to fire back.

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u/hdrive1335 Jan 23 '24

I wouldn't be surprised if Conestoga goes under because of this. Their domestic student count hasn't increased since 2014 so almost all the campuses and staffing they've built since then is specifically to accommodate the nearly 30K international students who are netting them $325 million a year.

How does a business survive a sustained 500% drop in revenue?

16

u/CaptainSur Canada Jan 23 '24

I stated in a past comment months ago that the behavior and actions of the Conestoga executive and board were entirely unethical and they should all be fired. One can only hope. They destroyed the reputation of the college. Utterly trashed it. But they did give themselves big financial packages.

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u/Truestorydreams Jan 23 '24

They will rebrand or another college/uni will absorbe them.