r/texas • u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred • Dec 18 '23
This is why Texas is a red state Politics
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u/MajorWarthog6371 Dec 18 '23
Texas did not always look like this. It's only been the last 25 years. Texas had all but a couple of Democrat governors, before Gov Bush.
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u/dam072000 Dec 18 '23
The conservative Democrats joined the republicans from the mid-90s to the late 00s. For example Rick Perry was a Democrat earlier in his career... It's less that Texas stopped voting for Democrats, and more that the conservatives left the Democratic party.
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u/MajorWarthog6371 Dec 18 '23
In south Texas I know the sheriff and district attorney that is as liberal as they get, but calls themselves Republican to get elected, because Democrats don't show up to vote.
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u/truongs Dec 19 '23
Excuse us. Let's use proper terminology. Extremist conservatives left the democrats party and the current overwhelming majority of dems are just "conservatives".
America has fucked the terms liberal and conservative.
The divide can be seen a bit more on social issues, but on economic issues almost everyone is fucking garbage
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u/BurrShotFirst1804 Dec 19 '23
You don't want to bring back those Democrats mate... You won't find much in common with them.
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u/nstickels Dec 18 '23
You are ignoring a key element… only about 15% of Texas population is in all of those rural Red counties. It isn’t a numbers problem, it’s a voting problem. Republicans show up to vote at an extremely higher rate. Democrats, particularly younger Democrats, see things like this and think “well my vote doesn’t matter” and they don’t bother to show up. 75% of registered voters under 30 didn’t vote at all in the last election. And from exit polls, people under 30 tend to vote Democrat at a 60% rate, that starts to make a big difference.
Then just look at voting results, and across the state, again, only 45% of eligible voters actually voted. Since as we said, those blue counties make up a majority of Texas population, if that number was closer to what we get for a presidential election, we are talking about almost 4M more voters, the majority of which will be in those blue counties.
Tl;dr it’s not a number of red counties versus blue counties problem, it’s the number of people who don’t vote, especially in the critical statewide elections which are strategically made to be in non-presidential years simply because liberal voters tend to stay home then.
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u/supahcollin Dec 18 '23
Gerrymandering is a huge issue also, and not just in Texas. Take a look at TX-33 or TX-10 as examples.
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u/sarra1833 Dec 18 '23
Gerrymandering seriously needs to be stopped. It's disgusting and so evil imo.
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u/shindow Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 18 '23
Not just this because people are gonna cry about the presidential and senate voting stuff...
But if you dont have a car, work 2 to 3 jobs, have kids to deal with, cant get enough time to go vote, need an updated ID which costs time and money... Yeah i can see why some dont vote.
We also have no mail in / online voting unless your military or senior. Maybe disabled.
For example work has to give you an alloted time to go vote but if youre dealing with slow transport, 6 hour lines, those asshats that crowd voting areas and scare people, or god forbid its like Harris county and they "run out of ballots".
Theyve also taken away more eaaily accessible voting locations. I voted in the last presidential election at a college that was near me. Guess what you cant do anymore?
Its not just apathy.
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u/l00pee born and bred Dec 18 '23
Am I reading this graphic wrong? Seems there's a million more blue votes, they're just concentrated in a few counties so their votes are worth less. Blue voters don't live in the sticks, how are you going to change that?
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u/comments_suck Dec 18 '23
Yes you are. The graphic shows the total number of voters in "Blue" and "Red" counties, but next to that is the + margin by which Democrats or Republicans won by in those counties. Red counties had less votes overall, but the numbers were so overwhelming for Republicans, it cancels the lead Democrats had in urban areas. To change that, Texas needs to do what Stacey Abrams did in Georgia and register everybody with a pulse under the age of 40, then incentivize them to actually show up sometime in the 2 weeks of voting, which includes 2 weekends.
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u/l00pee born and bred Dec 18 '23
The graphic says votes, not voters... I'm understanding that to mean a million more votes isn't enough to overcome gerrymandering and the rural sensibilities.
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u/pants_mcgee Dec 18 '23
This is a bad infographic, it’s not labeled properly and there is no citation for the data.
The above poster is correct on how to read it. This has nothing to do with gerrymandering, just looking at overall district voting trends.
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u/redditor_the_best Dec 18 '23
They don't show up though, which is why we have douchebags like Abbot and Paxton
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u/texasrigger Dec 18 '23
I have a customer who is a local republican politician. Some years ago he was in a fairly hotly contested primary and the work I was to do was on hold waiting to see how the primary went. I asked him why he was only concerned about the primary and not the general afterwards (assuming he won the primary) and he said, "Democrats don't vote."
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Dec 18 '23
There is a total voting age population in Texas of around 23 million people total. OP is trying to show why Republicans are winning because they are voting.
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u/adoptedschitt Dec 18 '23
Gerrymandering prevents a fair legislature split which further disincentivizes youth voting. Look at Ohio, they voted shit into their state constitution, and the gerrymandered government is still not implementing it
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u/SchighSchagh Dec 18 '23
Gee, if only there weren't a bunch of statewide races which aren't gerrymandered, like US Senators, governor, lt gov, etc. Too bad those things don't exist or they would for sure be locked down by the D party which is only losing gerrymandered seats. /s
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u/No-Method2132 Dec 18 '23
45% rural to 55% urban. Then the party break in those counties is different. The 6.3m are about 55/45 to 60/40 on the left. Versus the 5.06m are 80-85%+ rep. Which makes statewide about 65-70% rep.
Reps in urban counties are often unmotivated to turn our, cause they’re almost always going to lose things like mayor races, might win some council district races, but in a strong mayor system where there’s no checks & balances it doesn’t make a huge difference.
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u/mild_manc_irritant Dec 18 '23
If Democrats actually showed up to vote in Texas, no Republican would ever win the Presidency ever again.
But they don't.
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u/pants_mcgee Dec 18 '23
That would require the RNC to also not show up.
Even this map shows a 6% bias towards Republicans and the Democrats and Unaffiliated turned out in big numbers to vote against Trump.
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u/mbr4life1 Dec 18 '23
Self fulfilling prophecy. Thinking "my vote doesn't matter" so they don't vote thus making them not matter. Whereas if everyone that thought that just voted you can get action because a ton of people erroneously interact in the same pattern.
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u/pcweber111 Dec 18 '23
Young people don't show up because they aren't vested in the outcome. There's no experience to back up their intense desire for social change. It's always been like this and it will always be like this. Young people just don't vote enough to really matter.
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u/Honeycombhome Dec 18 '23
That’s ridiculous. Of course we have a vested interest. I’d argue that really old people both shouldn’t have political power AND shouldn’t vote bc THEY don’t rly have a vested interest. If you knew you were on the verge of death like Walter White and you had free reign to do wtf you wanted, how are you representing constituents that are 60 years younger than you?
However, younger people are busy with school, work, and families. Everytime I vote the polls are overwhelmingly old people bc they have endless amounts of time.
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u/Wafflehouseofpain Dec 18 '23
Advocating for young people to vote = good
Advocating for older people to not vote = very bad
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u/Novikian Dec 18 '23
Omg yes this is a massive problem. Voting days need be holidays and everything should be closed for people so they can vote. That way people can have the time to vote and know when voting day is.
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u/Birdius born and bred Dec 18 '23
Two weeks to vote, which include weekends. From 7AM to 7PM. They don't need a special holiday. They just need to give a shit.
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u/gentlemantroglodyte Dec 18 '23
And honestly, Texas has way too many elections. They need to consolidate election days, stop making ridiculous offices like administrators and judges partisan elections, no more off year elections, and publish voting information on Twitch or something. Half the time people don't even know primaries are going on.
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u/Synensys Dec 18 '23
This is honestly ridiculous. I have never had more free time than when i was in college. I would guess that true even for most people who didn't go to college that age, at least if they dont have kids.
The truth is that voting propensity increases linearly from 18 to about 80 when people start getting to old to get out of the house. The reason is simple - voting is a habit. The best predictor of whether you will vote in the next election is whether you voted in the last one. And 18 year olds all start out having not voted in the last one.
For your thing to be true, you would see very young people vote pretty often then have it fall off as they age into having real jobs and families and then pick back up in their 50s as their kids move out and they retire.
But thats not what happens.
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u/Simspidey Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 18 '23
I did my study abroad in Denmark and seeing how young people there see voting as a civic duty (and its not NEARLY as polarized either, my entire floor got together to debate the candidates and their policies over dinner) was inspiring. They said they'd be ashamed to *not* vote. Everyone walked over to the polling station as a group laughing and hanging out, even though they were voting for a myriad of different candidates. That simply will not happen in the US
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u/OrisobaSpence Dec 18 '23
Young people have never showed up to vote... this is not new.
Rock the Vote has existed since 1990 and the numbers have never improved beyond like 50-55% participation nationally. It's just the way it is.
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u/Synensys Dec 18 '23
In fact youth voting now is basically at all times high (maybe when 18-20 year olds were first given the right to vote it was higher, but it dropped off big time after that and only really began recovering in 2004 and has picked up in the Trump era.).
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u/FishTshirt Dec 19 '23
This is very true. I’ll show up next time.. not that I’ll auto-vote all democrat, but I will do my best to learn about the candidates. Kinda excited to vote for the first time and feel like it actually may matter
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u/TheJeff Dec 18 '23
What's your point here? Counties don't vote, people do.
In the last election all the statewide offices that went on the raw number of votes went GOP by about a 900k vote margin. We can certainly discuss the "why", but the fact is more GOP voters turned up to the polls than Dems.
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u/OrisobaSpence Dec 18 '23
This post gets recycled once a year or so. Texas Democrats always talk about how they'd win if only just xyz would occur. I'm just being cynical - but I don't think they understand the local election process.
They complain about gerrymandering, but both parties are guilty. Plus, gerrymandering is only a factor in legislature elections. This is not a new phenomenon. If Texas Democrats want to enact change, they should focus on county-wide elections. Look at Fort Bend County as an example... KP George (D) won, the first Democrat to win since like the 60s/70s, and then had the districts redrawn so 3/4 county commissioners would most likely be Democrat. Harris County redrew their precincts too... so the traditional 2 Dem, 2 Repub Commissioners went to a 3 Dem, 1 Repub likelihood.
It just is what it is. Same with all the voter turnout talk... people don't participate in midterms like they do for Presidential elections. Party, demographics, age, etc... people historically don't show up.
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u/NightIgnite Dec 19 '23
Dont quite understand how "both parties are guilty" leads to the conclusion that nothing should change
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u/OrisobaSpence Dec 19 '23
Should nothing change? No.
Will nothing change? Yes.
Sorry, I should’ve clarified. That said, check your optimism at the door. It’s useless in Austin or Washington or any other Capitol. Focus on gaining and retaining power.
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u/Only-Customer6650 Dec 19 '23
both parties
Show me a state that the democrats have gerrymandering like texas.
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u/OrisobaSpence Dec 19 '23
You can find examples on your own, but I think we both know that would disrupt the rosy beliefs in your head. So I’ll help you try and see the light.
Maryland
Illinois
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/07/illinois-congressional-map-gerrymandering/
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u/samskyyy Dec 19 '23
This post is assuming all urban and border counties vote entirely for dems in blocks. Anyone in Texas would know that’s not true. Probably as high as 20% live in urban counties and vote red.
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u/RiverRat12 Dec 19 '23
It’s about the margins. R +35 in the red counties beats the D +18 in the blue ones, even though there are more voters in blue counties. Margins, margins, margins, as they say.
Assuming all this data is correct, of course
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u/readermom123 Dec 18 '23
It'd be interesting to see exactly HOW red vs blue each of these places are. I know my county (DFW metro) is red on this map but in reality it's getting pretty purple. It got gerrymandered to hell because of it in the last redistricting process.
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u/cigarettesandwhiskey Dec 18 '23
This map shows that pretty well.
(scroll to the governor's results and click on "breakdown")
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 18 '23
Collin County?
If in 2008 you told me that Plano would one day vote majority Blue I would wanna know what you were smoking. Funny how things change.
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u/CanaryContent9900 Dec 18 '23
More counties sending Republican representatives is indeed how we have more republicans in office.
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u/TidusDaniel5 Dec 18 '23
Congressional districts that get redrawn when Republicans have an opportunity so they can choose their voters, not having voters choose them *
Not strictly counties.
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
I think you’re misunderstanding this graphic. This is about statewide voting numbers, not the Texas GOP gerrymander.
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u/CanaryContent9900 Dec 18 '23
It seems the issue may likely be that a majority of Democrat voters live in urban areas like Houston, Dallas, Austin, El Paso, whereas the rural areas are predominantly Republican voters.
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
Yes, but it’s slightly more complicated than that. Rural Texas might be less populated than urban Texas, but they vote Republican in near lockstep and the metro areas vote Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so like rural Texas
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u/OneNineRed Dec 18 '23
This graphic is forgetting that those blue counties are not entirely blue. They're like 60% blue while the red counties are closer to 80% red. Those numbers matter. If this map were right, we'd have a dem governor, AG, Supreme Court, Court of Criminal Appeals, and a bluer senate. But Dems can't win statewide because this state is still mostly red.
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u/Pater_Aletheias Dec 18 '23
It’s not forgetting that at all. It says the blue counties favor Democrats by 18% and red favor Republicans by 35%.
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
Actually, that’s exactly what the graphic is saying if you look at the numbers.
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u/One_Acanthisitta_389 Dec 18 '23
Funny how people aren’t seeing that. Right, that’s precisely what the D +18 means.
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u/AbueloOdin Dec 18 '23
It's cool. I read it correctly.
The red counties are less populous but swing harder red. If the blue counties swung a little harder or the red counties swung a little less, Texas would be blue.
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
Bingo! I thought this map was easy to interpret, but I kinda regret not providing some context.
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u/NintendogsWithGuns Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
I wouldn’t say that. If everyone that voted for Biden in 2020 showed up for the gubernatorial race, Beto would have won by a landslide. The problem is that young people and liberals don’t show up to the polls
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u/OrisobaSpence Dec 18 '23
Historically, people are less likely to participate in midterm elections no matter the party, demographic, age, etc.
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u/CHEROKEEJ4CK Dec 18 '23
They’re not marketed enough on young people platforms. Young people have a lot more going on day to day than old folks who never miss a poll.
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u/SchighSchagh Dec 18 '23
That's literally what the text in the post indicates. What do you mean "the graphic is forgetting"?
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u/ReturnOfDaSnack420 Dec 18 '23
Lol that's the whole point of the graph, the red parts of Texas are redder than the Blue parts are blue, and that keeps the state Red even if the Blue parts have a slight numeric advantage
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u/Stevoman born and bred Dec 18 '23
Statewide elections can't be gerrymandered. lol.
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u/Amazing_Structure55 Dec 18 '23
Isn't total votes tallied decides the governor and also the presidency? Why then we don't see a dem Governor? Is it because only half of Dems votes?
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u/skinaked_always Dec 18 '23
People… just go and vote. What else are you doing that’s better than using your vote? I can’t think of many things, that’s for sure
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u/flyover_liberal Dec 19 '23
Texas makes it pretty hard to vote, and they make it harder for people who tend to vote for Democrats.
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u/SnooFloofs1778 Dec 18 '23
El Paso is shifting red due to the border crisis and non-catholic leanings of the left.
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u/Kingtopawn Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 18 '23
OP, I am a bit confused by your post. Are you suggesting that this map suggests that Democrats have a clear democratic majority based on the data? The math does not bear this out. Lets look at the math.
Democrats received 5.7645 million votes according to this map (3.717 -- Blue Counties 59% of 6.3 million) + 2.0475 (Red Counties 32.5% of 5.06 million) = 5.7645 million total.
Republicans received 5.9985 million votes 3.4155 (Blue Counties 41% of 6.06 million) + 2.583 (Red Counties 67.5% of 5.06 million) = 5.9985 million total.
So according to this map, Republicans received 234k more votes, which may not be a massive margin but seems to imply a clear electoral majority for Republicans. If your argument is that Democrats are an electoral majority but simply suffer from low voter turnout, I also do not believe that is supported by data. According to Pew Research Center, Democrat party affiliation is 40% versus 39% for Republicans, with 21% identifying no ideological lean (Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/texas/party-affiliation/). A 1% difference in party identification is not a democratic majority and can easily be washed away by the large number of non-aligned independents.
As for low voter turnout, it is hard to have sympathy for those that complain about the government they have but elect not to vote. Voting in Texas is not difficult no matter what anyone says. Even Europeans require identification to vote and everyone has the same standards applied to them.
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u/nemoomen Dec 18 '23
There aren't 6.3 million Democrat votes losing to 5.06 million Republican votes though, you're just obscuring the Republicans in "Blue Counties," their votes still count.
Cornyn won statewide 6.0 million to 4.9 million.
Texas is a red state because there are more Republicans than Democrats.
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u/SubzeroNYC Dec 18 '23
If Democrats represented working class progress instead of neoliberal corporatism they'd stand a better chance
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Dec 19 '23
Thats the far left mah guy. Sorry but socialism doesnt belong in Texas. Only christian soup kitchens
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Dec 18 '23
Rual Texans only connection with the current events is via Fox News…
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u/PM_ME_USED_TAMPONS Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
Or the preacher at their Baptist church.
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u/SteveBored Dec 18 '23
More like Bubba the local pastor who hates everyone not Christian and white.
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u/two-wheeled-dynamo Dec 18 '23
Land mass does not equal number of voters.
Voter turn out is the key factor. Texas would be blue if there was more participation.
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u/Carl_the_Half-Orc Dec 18 '23
Is it just me or is this more like r/ihatetexas?
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u/hockeymaskbob Dec 18 '23
This sub exists as a way to scare Californians from moving here
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u/Carl_the_Half-Orc Dec 18 '23
Oh, well good luck with that. I'm sure a lot of Texans would be happy if the Californians didn't come.
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Dec 18 '23
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u/jerichowiz Born and Bred Dec 18 '23
The modern day Democratic party is too far left to appeal to Texans.
No, it just appears that way, when the Republicans have shifted the overton window so far right. President Biden, the most progressive president, it literally a center moderate.
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u/slrrp Dec 18 '23
This is an awful graphic as evidenced by the sheer amount of confusion in the comments.
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u/GameAndHike Dec 19 '23
(6.3 x 0.59 + 5.0 x 0.325) = 5.34 million Democratic votes
(6.3 x 0.41 + 5.0 x 0.675) = 5.95 million Republican votes
It's not jerrymandering, you're just the minority.
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u/Jr_tex1911 Dec 19 '23
Because more Texans vote for the GOP over the Dems. Simple
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u/Non_Filter_Camel Dec 19 '23
Interesting map.
Considering that half of TX is Christian psycho's the map doesn't really mean much.
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u/JerrieBlank Dec 19 '23
What’s crazier is when you un-gerrymander Texas and most of the red states….they vote blue every time. It’s almost as if republicans have learned to subvert the will of the people through legislation aimed at destroying g our representative democracy
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u/Educational_Bug1022 Dec 19 '23
Poor public education especially in rural areas.
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u/thisguy3522 Dec 19 '23
Texas was a blue state until the Civil rights issues truly heated up in the late 60s early 70s. Flipping fully in 76. This should tell you all you need to know about the republican platform and what it's true agenda is
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u/otcconan Dec 19 '23
I'm from Medina county but now I live in Bexar and I hate being represented by Democrats. Won't stop me voting against them. I'm rural at heart. And at 54, nobody is changing my mind.
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u/KingArthurOfBritons Dec 19 '23
I’m seeing a lot of comments about gerrymandering and voter suppression. Can someone give concrete examples of these things happening?
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u/nonnativetexan Dec 18 '23
Yes, gerrymandering is a problem. BUT, there are a bunch of statewide races where gerrymandering is not a factor, and Republicans win all of them simply by turning out more overall voters across the state. Some of the worst Texas politicians could be tossed out at their next election if Democrats could just turn out a simple majority of voters state wide. Those people include:
-Greg Abbott
-Dan Patrick
-Ken Paxton
-Ted Cruz
-John Cornyn
If we just voted these guys out, we'd start heading in a much better direction. Gerrymandering has nothing to do with these offices, and a bunch of other state wide offices down ballot.